# SpaceX · 8 verticals vs Street targets

As of 18 Aug 2026. Last close $146.23 (17 Aug 2026 close).

Eight SpaceX verticals against every published 12-month price target. A mention in the write-up is not a number in the model. Only IN means dollars in the 12-month target.

## Scoring

- IN — the 12-month price target has real dollars on this vertical.
- BULL — published only in a bull case or a long-term number (MS $600, Citi $900, GS upside list, Morningstar moonshot).
- NAMED — in the note, no SOTP line, no dollars in the 12-month target.
- OUT — not considered, or explicitly zeroed / rejected.

## How many desks put each vertical IN the 12-month PT

| Vertical | IN | BULL | NAMED | OUT |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1. Starlink | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2. Terrestrial AI compute | 18 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3. Orbital AI compute | 1 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| 4. X · Everything app · X Money | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 |
| 5. Grok as a frontier model | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 |
| 6. Terafab | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 |
| 7. Launch | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8. Moonshots | 0 | 3 | 1 | 27 |

## Firm board

| # | Firm | PT | vs $146 | IN of 8 | Starlink | Terra AI | Orbit AI | X app | Grok | Terafab | Launch | Moonshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raymond James | $800 | +447% | 3/8 | in | in | named | out | named | out | in | named |
| 2 | Arete | $450 | +208% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 3 | Morgan Stanley | $300 | +105% | 3/8 | in | in | bull | named | named | out | in | bull |
| 4 | Needham | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 5 | Macquarie | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 6 | Oppenheimer | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | in | in | named | named | named | named | in | out |
| 7 | Bernstein | $248 | +70% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 8 | Cantor | $246 | +68% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 9 | Canaccord | $246 | +68% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 10 | JPMorgan | $240 | +64% | 3/8 | in | in | bull | out | named | out | in | out |
| 11 | Deutsche Bank | $235 | +61% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 12 | BofA | $235 | +61% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 13 | Evercore ISI | $230 | +57% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 14 | RBC | $225 | +54% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | named | in | out |
| 15 | Goldman Sachs | $220 | +50% | 4/8 | in | in | in | out | named | named | in | bull |
| 16 | Clear Street | $217 | +48% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 17 | Wells Fargo | $215 | +47% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 18 | UBS | $210 | +44% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 19 | Mizuho | $200 | +37% | 3/8 | in | in | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 20 | Citi | $200 | +37% | 2/8 | in | named | bull | out | out | out | in | bull |
| 21 | Stifel | $190 | +30% | 2/8 | in | named | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 22 | Wedbush | $190 | +30% | 2/8 | in | named | out | named | named | out | in | out |
| 23 | Wolfe | $175 | +20% | 2/8 | in | named | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 24 | Daiwa | $175 | +20% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 25 | Susquehanna | $170 | +16% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 26 | Argus | $160 | +9% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 27 | Piper Sandler | $140 | -4% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 28 | MoffettNathanson | $131 | -10% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 29 | CFRA | $115 | -21% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 30 | HSBC | $115 | -21% | 2/8 | in | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 31 | Phillip Securities | $75 | -49% | 1/8 | named | out | out | out | out | out | in | out |
| 32 | Morningstar | $63 | -57% | 2/8 | in | named | bull | out | out | out | in | bull |

## What they put in / left out

### Raymond James · Strong Buy · $800

A 2031 infrastructure DCF pulled into a 12-month target. $30T TAM, 27x 2031 EBITDA. The number is the flywheel, not eight lines.

**In:** Launch cost crash, Starlink as the cash engine, AI cloud leases as proof. 2026 ~$38.5B rev / $17.7B EBITDA → 2031 >$837B / $696B.

**Out:** No standalone Grok, X Money, or Terafab line. Asteroid / moon factories ride inside the TAM, not as cash flows. No haircut for Starship slip, 90-day cloud walk-away, or dilution.

### Arete · Buy · $450

Telecom note, not aerospace. $450 is Starlink V3 plus Starship on time. Raised from $401 on 11 Aug.

**In:** V3 attacks suburban broadband. V3 is too big for Falcon 9, so Starship must fly. Subscriber growth is the live KPI.

**Out:** No orbital GW, no Grok-as-ChatGPT, no X Money, no Terafab, no moon factories. If Starship slips, the whole target breaks.

### Morgan Stanley · Overweight · $300 · bull $600

Only desk that locates AI in dollars. At ~$146 they split ~$127 launch+Starlink and ~$12 for all of SpaceXAI. $300 pays more if Grok/Cursor look like products. Reiterated 17 Aug.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial compute, Cursor ARR (~$2.5B 2026 → ~$33B 2030). AI is most of the gap from $146 to $300.

**Out:** Grok the model is inside the $12 residual, not a SOTP line. X sits in that same $12. Orbit and robot ARPU live only in the $600 bull. Terafab and moon factories are out.

### Needham · Buy · $250

Q1/Q2 AI and Starlink upside. No moonshot. The clean cluster Buy.

**In:** Falcon, Starlink, a slice of terrestrial AI that already printed.

**Out:** Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, asteroid / moon are not in the $250.

### Macquarie · Buy · $250

Standard growth SOTP. Public note does not break out Grok, X, Terafab, or orbit.

**In:** Launch + Starlink + a terrestrial AI slice.

**Out:** No published dollars on Grok the model, X Money, Terafab, orbital GW, or moonshots.

### Oppenheimer · Outperform · $250

Raised from $190 after Cursor. Talks like they own the whole AI stack. The $250 is Cursor visibility, not Grok beating ChatGPT.

**In:** Starlink vs a $1.6T U.S. telecom TAM. Cursor run-rate ~$1B → $4B → $6B YE 2026. Q4 2026 AI rev $8.75B. Launch. Models >$400B net debt by 2031.

**Out:** “Owns every layer” is the write-up. Grok, X, and chips are named, not SOTP lines. No orbital GW in the 12-month number. No moon factories.

### Bernstein · Outperform · $248

Raised from $239 on Starship cadence and Cursor. Cluster SOTP with two live KPIs.

**In:** Launch / Starship flights, Starlink, Cursor inside terrestrial AI.

**Out:** Grok the model, X, Terafab, orbit, and moonshots are not 12-month lines.

### Cantor · Overweight · $246

Initiation SOTP, held through earnings. No public breakout of Grok or Terafab.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.

**Out:** Orbit, X, Grok-as-frontier, Terafab, moonshots out of the $246.

### Canaccord · Buy · $246

Initiation Buy. Same cluster stack as Cantor.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.

**Out:** No published dollars on Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshots.

### JPMorgan · Overweight · $240

“Everything depends on Starship.” YE 2027 frame. Orbital GW is in the essay, not in a 12-month cash line.

**In:** Launch-cost cut, Starlink V-next, terrestrial compute ~8x by 2028, Grok+Cursor named as monetization.

**Out:** Orbit is 2028 (0.4 GW) → 2031 (75 GW). That is after the 12-month window, so it is BULL here. Mars city is not a cash line. Terafab and X Money out.

### Deutsche Bank · Buy · $235

Cut from $255, still Buy. Maintained 17 Aug. Long-term bull, 12-month haircut.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI that already exists.

**Out:** The cut is the tell: orbit / Grok / Terafab / moonshots were never the $235.

### BofA · Buy · $235

Initiation $235. Later Buy notes did not restate a new target.

**In:** Underwriter SOTP: launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI.

**Out:** No public Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshot line in the 12-month number.

### Evercore ISI · Outperform · $230

Underwriter SOTP. The $230 is the cluster, not the $28T TAM.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the 12-month target.

### RBC · Outperform · $225

Launch + Starlink + Tesla-collab optionality. Tesla collab is a sentence, not a Terafab DCF.

**In:** Falcon, Starlink, some terrestrial AI.

**Out:** Terafab is named via Tesla, not valued as a chip company. Grok, X, orbit, moonshots out.

### Goldman Sachs · Buy · $220 · bull $285

The only cluster desk that puts orbital GW inside the 12-month SOTP. $220 is 2029 cash flows. Raised from $205.

**In:** Starship ~2,750 launches in 2030. $183/kg. 47 AI sats per ship. 175k in orbit by end-2030 → 26 GW. Starlink funds it. Terra AI in the $322B 2030 AI pile.

**Out:** Terafab is a dependency (“if it cuts Nvidia spend”), not a valued foundry. Grok is ~14% of a 2030 AI revenue rebuild, not a 12-month equity line. Point-to-point, tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, asteroid, Moon/Mars are listed as upside, not in $220. X Money out.

### Clear Street · Buy · $217

Reiterated $217 on 18 Aug. Conservative Buy. No public moonshot stack.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $217.

### Wells Fargo · Overweight · $215

Cut from $230 because AI capex has a funding bill. Same stack, smaller number.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI — with a raise / dilution haircut.

**Out:** Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, moonshots not in the $215. The cut is the funding gap, not a new vertical.

### UBS · Buy · $210

Maintained $210 on 17 Aug. Aggregator $75 print is bad data.

**In:** Starlink + AI cloud + launch.

**Out:** Grok the model, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $210.

### Mizuho · Outperform · $200

Initiation, held. Bottom of the Buy cluster.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, thin terrestrial AI.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.

### Citi · Buy · $200 · bull $900

The $200 is a waypoint. The thesis is $900+ later. Almost the entire long stack is not in the 12-month number.

**In:** Launch + Starlink + a near-term blend. 12-month only.

**Out:** Full Starship reuse and at-scale orbital AI sit in the $900, not the $200. Grok, X, Terafab, moonshots not in the waypoint.

### Stifel · Buy · $190

Conservative Buy. Pays a small premium over cash businesses.

**In:** Launch and Starlink. Thin AI.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $190.

### Wedbush · Outperform · $190

Musk-complex / AI narrative. The $190 does not model Grok winning ChatGPT.

**In:** Launch, Starlink, AI as a story premium.

**Out:** Grok is named. X is named. Neither is a SOTP line. Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.

### Wolfe · Outperform · $175

Initiated around IPO on 16x 2028 sales. Modest AI/space premium.

**In:** Launch and Starlink. Small multiple on later sales.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $175.

### Daiwa · Neutral · $175

Near-term fair value. Neutral. Not a growth SOTP.

**In:** Launch and today’s Starlink.

**Out:** Every option vertical is out of the Neutral $175.

### Susquehanna · Neutral · $170

Hold through earnings. Pays for the cash businesses, not the poster.

**In:** Launch and Starlink.

**Out:** Terra AI, orbit, X, Grok, Terafab, moonshots out.

### Argus · Buy · $160

Upgraded from Hold. Limited optionality. Almost no premium to the tape.

**In:** Launch and Starlink.

**Out:** AI stack, Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $160.

### Piper Sandler · Neutral · $140

Cut from $156. Lockups and Tesla-deal noise. Below the tape.

**In:** Existing launch and Starlink, haircut for supply.

**Out:** Starship is not base case. V3 suburban, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, moonshots out.

### MoffettNathanson · Neutral · $131

Rejects the company TAM. Prices the businesses that exist. “Identity crisis.”

**In:** Launch and today’s Starlink. Telecom discipline.

**Out:** $22.7T Grok Business TAM, $28T S-1 TAM, orbital compute as a 12-month cash business, X Money, Terafab, Mars — all out on purpose.

### CFRA · Sell · $115

Sell. The tape already prices heroic growth. $115 is a haircut, not a new stack.

**In:** Launch and Starlink at a discount to the tape.

**Out:** No incremental dollars for terra AI, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, or moonshots.

### HSBC · Hold · $115 · bull $293

Hold. Price already reflects success. They have a $293 bull they refuse to use as the target.

**In:** Launch and Starlink in the $115. The $293 bull is unpublished stack.

**Out:** Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots are not in the Hold target. $293 is BULL only where they said so — they did not publish the split.

### Phillip Securities · Sell · $75

Street low. AI revenue not durable. Cash burn through 2030. Maintained 17 Aug.

**In:** A discounted launch + Starlink stub.

**Out:** GPU leases treated as cancellable. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out. Starlink is not a compounding cash engine in this note.

### Morningstar · Independent · $63 · bull $154

Not sell-side. Launch + Starlink ~$40. Moonshot $154 at 7%. Blend $63.

**In:** Core launch and Starlink, high visibility.

**Out:** Orbit only in the 7% moonshot. Grok, X, Terafab, and asteroid / moon factories are not in the $63. Even the moonshot tops out at $154.

Cursor is parked inside terrestrial AI when a desk models it. It is not a ninth vertical here. Grok Imagine and Grok Build are scored with Grok the model, not with compute leases.

Not financial advice.