1 · Starlink
30 / 31
30 in · 0 bull · 1 named · 0 out
Today’s constellation, subscribers, ARPU, V3 / mobile / suburban broadband.
As of 18 Aug 2026 · last close $146.23 · 17 Aug 2026 close
What they priced. What they left out.
Eight SpaceX verticals against every published 12-month price target. A mention in the write-up is not a number in the model. Only IN means dollars in the 12-month target.
Last close $146.23. Street average about $223. Cluster $200–$250. High $800 (Raymond James). Low $75 (Phillip). Morningstar $63 is independent research, not a sell-side target.
31 sell-side 12-month targets
Street priced 2.58 of 8 verticals
IN = dollars in the target. Named is not priced. Bull is not the 12-month number.
2 · Terra AI
18 / 31
18 in · 0 bull · 4 named · 9 out
Colossus, neocloud leases (Anthropic, Google, Reflection), Cursor revenue parked here.
3 · Orbit AI
1 / 31
1 in · 3 bull · 2 named · 25 out
Data centers in space. GW in orbit. Starship as the truck for compute, not just for Starlink.
4 · X app
0 / 31
0 in · 0 bull · 3 named · 28 out
X as a consumer / payments / everything-app. Not the GPU hotel. Not Grok the model.
5 · Grok
0 / 31
0 in · 0 bull · 6 named · 25 out
Grok, Grok Imagine, Grok Build as a ChatGPT / Claude threat. Not Colossus rent.
6 · Terafab
0 / 31
0 in · 0 bull · 3 named · 28 out
Joint chip plant with Tesla. Valued as a chip producer, not as a footnote that makes orbit cheaper.
7 · Launch
31 / 31
31 in · 0 bull · 0 named · 0 out
Falcon franchise and Starship as a launch business. Cadence, $/kg, rideshare.
8 · Moonshots
0 / 31
0 in · 3 bull · 1 named · 27 out
Asteroid mining, moon factories, Mars logistics, point-to-point Earth transport.
- IN · in the 12-month PT
- BULL · only in a bull / long-term number
- NAMED · in the note, no dollars
- OUT · not considered
The board
| # | Firm | PT | vs close | IN | Starlink | Terra AI | Orbit AI | X app | Grok | Terafab | Launch | Moonshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Raymond James Brian Gesuale · Strong Buy | $800 | +447% | 3/8 | I | I | N | O | N | O | I | N |
| 02 | Arete Andrew Beale · Buy | $450 | +208% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 03 | Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas · Overweight | $300 bull $600 | +105% | 3/8 | I | I | B | N | N | O | I | B |
| 04 | Needham Ryan Koontz · Buy | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 05 | Macquarie Paul Golding · Buy | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 06 | Oppenheimer Timothy Horan · Outperform | $250 | +71% | 3/8 | I | I | N | N | N | N | I | O |
| 07 | Bernstein Douglas Harned · Outperform | $248 | +70% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 08 | Cantor Colin Canfield · Overweight | $246 | +68% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 09 | Canaccord Buy | $246 | +68% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 10 | JPMorgan Doug Anmuth · Overweight | $240 | +64% | 3/8 | I | I | B | O | N | O | I | O |
| 11 | Deutsche Bank Edison Yu · Buy | $235 | +61% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 12 | BofA Ronald Epstein · Buy | $235 | +61% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 13 | Evercore ISI Kutgun Maral · Outperform | $230 | +57% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 14 | RBC Ken Herbert · Outperform | $225 | +54% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | N | I | O |
| 15 | Goldman Sachs Eric Sheridan · Buy | $220 bull $285 | +50% | 4/8 | I | I | I | O | N | N | I | B |
| 16 | Clear Street Brian Dobson · Buy | $217 | +48% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 17 | Wells Fargo Ken Gawrelski · Overweight | $215 | +47% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 18 | UBS John Hodulik · Buy | $210 | +44% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 19 | Mizuho Brett Linzey · Outperform | $200 | +37% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 20 | Citi John Godyn · Buy | $200 bull $900 | +37% | 2/8 | I | N | B | O | O | O | I | B |
| 21 | Stifel Jonathan Siegmann · Buy | $190 | +30% | 2/8 | I | N | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 22 | Wedbush Dan Ives · Outperform | $190 | +30% | 2/8 | I | N | O | N | N | O | I | O |
| 23 | Wolfe Myles Walton · Outperform | $175 | +20% | 2/8 | I | N | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 24 | Daiwa Jonathan Kees · Neutral | $175 | +20% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 25 | Susquehanna Charles Minervino · Neutral | $170 | +16% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 26 | Argus Steve Silver · Buy | $160 | +9% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 27 | Piper Sandler Alexander Potter · Neutral | $140 | -4% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 28 | MoffettNathanson Julie Zhu · Neutral | $131 | -10% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 29 | CFRA Keith Snyder · Sell | $115 | -21% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 30 | HSBC Nicolas Cote-Colisson · Hold | $115 bull $293 | -21% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 31 | Phillip Securities Glenn Thum · Sell | $75 | -49% | 1/8 | N | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 32 | Morningstar Nicolas Owens · Independent | $63 bull $154 | -57% | 2/8 | I | N | B | O | O | O | I | B |
#
Desk
Target
Priced of 8
01
Strong Buy
Raymond James
Brian Gesuale · 12-month target $800
A 2031 infrastructure DCF pulled into a 12-month target. $30T TAM, 27x 2031 EBITDA. The number is the flywheel, not eight lines.
In the number. Launch cost crash, Starlink as the cash engine, AI cloud leases as proof. 2026 ~$38.5B rev / $17.7B EBITDA → 2031 >$837B / $696B.
Left out. No standalone Grok, X Money, or Terafab line. Asteroid / moon factories ride inside the TAM, not as cash flows. No haircut for Starship slip, 90-day cloud walk-away, or dilution.
$800
+447% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
02
Buy
Arete
Andrew Beale · 12-month target $450
Telecom note, not aerospace. $450 is Starlink V3 plus Starship on time. Raised from $401 on 11 Aug.
In the number. V3 attacks suburban broadband. V3 is too big for Falcon 9, so Starship must fly. Subscriber growth is the live KPI.
Left out. No orbital GW, no Grok-as-ChatGPT, no X Money, no Terafab, no moon factories. If Starship slips, the whole target breaks.
$450
+208% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
03
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
Adam Jonas · 12-month target $300 · bull $600 · bear $75
Only desk that locates AI in dollars. At ~$146 they split ~$127 launch+Starlink and ~$12 for all of SpaceXAI. $300 pays more if Grok/Cursor look like products. Reiterated 17 Aug.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial compute, Cursor ARR (~$2.5B 2026 → ~$33B 2030). AI is most of the gap from $146 to $300.
Left out. Grok the model is inside the $12 residual, not a SOTP line. X sits in that same $12. Orbit and robot ARPU live only in the $600 bull. Terafab and moon factories are out.
$300
+105% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
04
Buy
Needham
Ryan Koontz · 12-month target $250
Q1/Q2 AI and Starlink upside. No moonshot. The clean cluster Buy.
In the number. Falcon, Starlink, a slice of terrestrial AI that already printed.
Left out. Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, asteroid / moon are not in the $250.
$250
+71% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
05
Buy
Macquarie
Paul Golding · 12-month target $250
Standard growth SOTP. Public note does not break out Grok, X, Terafab, or orbit.
In the number. Launch + Starlink + a terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. No published dollars on Grok the model, X Money, Terafab, orbital GW, or moonshots.
$250
+71% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
06
Outperform
Oppenheimer
Timothy Horan · 12-month target $250
Raised from $190 after Cursor. Talks like they own the whole AI stack. The $250 is Cursor visibility, not Grok beating ChatGPT.
In the number. Starlink vs a $1.6T U.S. telecom TAM. Cursor run-rate ~$1B → $4B → $6B YE 2026. Q4 2026 AI rev $8.75B. Launch. Models >$400B net debt by 2031.
Left out. “Owns every layer” is the write-up. Grok, X, and chips are named, not SOTP lines. No orbital GW in the 12-month number. No moon factories.
$250
+71% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
07
Outperform
Bernstein
Douglas Harned · 12-month target $248
Raised from $239 on Starship cadence and Cursor. Cluster SOTP with two live KPIs.
In the number. Launch / Starship flights, Starlink, Cursor inside terrestrial AI.
Left out. Grok the model, X, Terafab, orbit, and moonshots are not 12-month lines.
$248
+70% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
08
Overweight
Cantor
Colin Canfield · 12-month target $246
Initiation SOTP, held through earnings. No public breakout of Grok or Terafab.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Orbit, X, Grok-as-frontier, Terafab, moonshots out of the $246.
$246
+68% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
09
Buy
Canaccord
12-month target $246
Initiation Buy. Same cluster stack as Cantor.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. No published dollars on Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshots.
$246
+68% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
10
Overweight
JPMorgan
Doug Anmuth · 12-month target $240
“Everything depends on Starship.” YE 2027 frame. Orbital GW is in the essay, not in a 12-month cash line.
In the number. Launch-cost cut, Starlink V-next, terrestrial compute ~8x by 2028, Grok+Cursor named as monetization.
Left out. Orbit is 2028 (0.4 GW) → 2031 (75 GW). That is after the 12-month window, so it is BULL here. Mars city is not a cash line. Terafab and X Money out.
$240
+64% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
11
Buy
Deutsche Bank
Edison Yu · 12-month target $235
Cut from $255, still Buy. Maintained 17 Aug. Long-term bull, 12-month haircut.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI that already exists.
Left out. The cut is the tell: orbit / Grok / Terafab / moonshots were never the $235.
$235
+61% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
12
Buy
BofA
Ronald Epstein · 12-month target $235
Initiation $235. Later Buy notes did not restate a new target.
In the number. Underwriter SOTP: launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI.
Left out. No public Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshot line in the 12-month number.
$235
+61% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
13
Outperform
Evercore ISI
Kutgun Maral · 12-month target $230
Underwriter SOTP. The $230 is the cluster, not the $28T TAM.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the 12-month target.
$230
+57% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
14
Outperform
RBC
Ken Herbert · 12-month target $225
Launch + Starlink + Tesla-collab optionality. Tesla collab is a sentence, not a Terafab DCF.
In the number. Falcon, Starlink, some terrestrial AI.
Left out. Terafab is named via Tesla, not valued as a chip company. Grok, X, orbit, moonshots out.
$225
+54% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
15
Buy
Goldman Sachs
Eric Sheridan · 12-month target $220 · bull $285
The only cluster desk that puts orbital GW inside the 12-month SOTP. $220 is 2029 cash flows. Raised from $205.
In the number. Starship ~2,750 launches in 2030. $183/kg. 47 AI sats per ship. 175k in orbit by end-2030 → 26 GW. Starlink funds it. Terra AI in the $322B 2030 AI pile.
Left out. Terafab is a dependency (“if it cuts Nvidia spend”), not a valued foundry. Grok is ~14% of a 2030 AI revenue rebuild, not a 12-month equity line. Point-to-point, tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, asteroid, Moon/Mars are listed as upside, not in $220. X Money out.
$220
+50% vs $146.23
4 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
16
Buy
Clear Street
Brian Dobson · 12-month target $217
Reiterated $217 on 18 Aug. Conservative Buy. No public moonshot stack.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $217.
$217
+48% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
17
Overweight
Wells Fargo
Ken Gawrelski · 12-month target $215
Cut from $230 because AI capex has a funding bill. Same stack, smaller number.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI — with a raise / dilution haircut.
Left out. Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, moonshots not in the $215. The cut is the funding gap, not a new vertical.
$215
+47% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
18
Buy
UBS
John Hodulik · 12-month target $210
Maintained $210 on 17 Aug. Aggregator $75 print is bad data.
In the number. Starlink + AI cloud + launch.
Left out. Grok the model, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $210.
$210
+44% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
19
Outperform
Mizuho
Brett Linzey · 12-month target $200
Initiation, held. Bottom of the Buy cluster.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, thin terrestrial AI.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.
$200
+37% vs $146.23
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
20
Buy
Citi
John Godyn · 12-month target $200 · bull $900
The $200 is a waypoint. The thesis is $900+ later. Almost the entire long stack is not in the 12-month number.
In the number. Launch + Starlink + a near-term blend. 12-month only.
Left out. Full Starship reuse and at-scale orbital AI sit in the $900, not the $200. Grok, X, Terafab, moonshots not in the waypoint.
$200
+37% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
21
Buy
Stifel
Jonathan Siegmann · 12-month target $190
Conservative Buy. Pays a small premium over cash businesses.
In the number. Launch and Starlink. Thin AI.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $190.
$190
+30% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
22
Outperform
Wedbush
Dan Ives · 12-month target $190
Musk-complex / AI narrative. The $190 does not model Grok winning ChatGPT.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, AI as a story premium.
Left out. Grok is named. X is named. Neither is a SOTP line. Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.
$190
+30% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
23
Outperform
Wolfe
Myles Walton · 12-month target $175
Initiated around IPO on 16x 2028 sales. Modest AI/space premium.
In the number. Launch and Starlink. Small multiple on later sales.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $175.
$175
+20% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
24
Neutral
Daiwa
Jonathan Kees · 12-month target $175
Near-term fair value. Neutral. Not a growth SOTP.
In the number. Launch and today’s Starlink.
Left out. Every option vertical is out of the Neutral $175.
$175
+20% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
25
Neutral
Susquehanna
Charles Minervino · 12-month target $170
Hold through earnings. Pays for the cash businesses, not the poster.
In the number. Launch and Starlink.
Left out. Terra AI, orbit, X, Grok, Terafab, moonshots out.
$170
+16% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
26
Buy
Argus
Steve Silver · 12-month target $160
Upgraded from Hold. Limited optionality. Almost no premium to the tape.
In the number. Launch and Starlink.
Left out. AI stack, Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $160.
$160
+9% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
27
Neutral
Piper Sandler
Alexander Potter · 12-month target $140
Cut from $156. Lockups and Tesla-deal noise. Below the tape.
In the number. Existing launch and Starlink, haircut for supply.
Left out. Starship is not base case. V3 suburban, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, moonshots out.
$140
-4% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
28
Neutral
MoffettNathanson
Julie Zhu · 12-month target $131
Rejects the company TAM. Prices the businesses that exist. “Identity crisis.”
In the number. Launch and today’s Starlink. Telecom discipline.
Left out. $22.7T Grok Business TAM, $28T S-1 TAM, orbital compute as a 12-month cash business, X Money, Terafab, Mars — all out on purpose.
$131
-10% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
29
Sell
CFRA
Keith Snyder · 12-month target $115
Sell. The tape already prices heroic growth. $115 is a haircut, not a new stack.
In the number. Launch and Starlink at a discount to the tape.
Left out. No incremental dollars for terra AI, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, or moonshots.
$115
-21% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
30
Hold
HSBC
Nicolas Cote-Colisson · 12-month target $115 · bull $293
Hold. Price already reflects success. They have a $293 bull they refuse to use as the target.
In the number. Launch and Starlink in the $115. The $293 bull is unpublished stack.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots are not in the Hold target. $293 is BULL only where they said so — they did not publish the split.
$115
-21% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
31
Sell
Phillip Securities
Glenn Thum · 12-month target $75
Street low. AI revenue not durable. Cash burn through 2030. Maintained 17 Aug.
In the number. A discounted launch + Starlink stub.
Left out. GPU leases treated as cancellable. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out. Starlink is not a compounding cash engine in this note.
$75
-49% vs $146.23
1 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
32
Independent
not sell-side
Morningstar
Nicolas Owens · 12-month target $63 · bull $154
Not sell-side. Launch + Starlink ~$40. Moonshot $154 at 7%. Blend $63.
In the number. Core launch and Starlink, high visibility.
Left out. Orbit only in the 7% moonshot. Grok, X, Terafab, and asteroid / moon factories are not in the $63. Even the moonshot tops out at $154.
$63
-57% vs $146.23
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
How to read this board
Same idea as the 13F page. There the running column is ownership toward 100%. Here the running column is how many of the eight verticals have dollars in the 12-month target. A write-up can talk about Grok and still score OUT. Morgan Stanley’s ~$12 AI residual is Colossus + X + Grok + Cursor in one pile — Grok the model is NAMED, not IN.
IN — the 12-month price target has real dollars on this vertical. BULL — published only in a bull case or a long-term number (MS $600, Citi $900, GS upside list, Morningstar moonshot). NAMED — in the note, no SOTP line, no dollars in the 12-month target. OUT — not considered, or explicitly zeroed / rejected.
Cursor is parked inside terrestrial AI when a desk models it. It is not a ninth vertical here. Grok Imagine and Grok Build are scored with Grok the model, not with compute leases.
The punchline
Launch and Starlink are in almost every target. Terrestrial AI (the GPU hotel) is in the $200–$250 cluster. Orbital compute is in Goldman’s $220 and in a handful of bull cases. Grok as a frontier model, X / X Money, Terafab as a chip company, and moonshots are not in anyone’s 12-month price target as their own businesses. That is the $75 vs $800 fight: not Falcon, not today’s Starlink. The leftover six.
Updated 18 Aug 2026. 380 people · 448 views. Aggregator “mass downgrades” on 7 Aug are treated as bad data. Live reiterates on 17–18 Aug still show MS $300, DB $235, UBS $210, Clear Street $217, Phillip $75. Not financial advice.