Catalyst impact · closes 2026-06-12 to 2026-10-21 (91 sessions) · updated 2026-10-22 10:51 UTC

Do catalysts move SpaceX?

Every past event lined up with how $SPCX actually traded around it. "vs QQQ" strips out the market: it's SPCX's move minus the Nasdaq-100's over the same days.

Read this first: SpaceX has only traded for about 4 months, so most groups have 1 to 6 events. This shows what happened next to each event, not that the event caused it. Several events land within 2 days of each other and are flagged as overlapping.

← Upcoming catalysts

SPCX daily close with events

UnlocksLaunches / StarshipCompute, AI & big dealsEarningsElon statementsMacro / market TA levels

What we see so far

Written 13 Oct 2026, on closes to 12 Oct. The numbers below refresh after every close; this text is reviewed by hand.

Earnings moved it most. The Q2 report (4 Aug) brought a 13.6% drop the next day on 3x normal volume, after a 11% run-up in the 5 days before. It then rebounded hard, but that rebound overlaps with the 6 Aug unlock, so we can't credit either one alone.
Unlocks have not caused selling so far. Across 6 releases, SPCX was flat on the day on average (median about 0% vs QQQ five days later), with volume about 1.5x normal. 4 of the 5 with a full 5-day window beat QQQ. Unlocked means allowed to sell, not sold.
Starship flights were sold on the day both times (Flight 13 -1.4%, Flight 14 -2.2%), after weak weeks going in. Flight 14 then ran +13% vs QQQ over the next week. Two flights is not a pattern.
Deal headlines (Cursor, Nvidia financing talks, Grain spectrum) came after strong run-ups and were met with red days. That looks like 'sell the news', but the last two are only days old.
Elon's Colossus and 'pole position' posts came when the stock was basing near $148, and it rose over the following week. The 24 Sep post lands on an unlock day, so the two are mixed.
Fed days were mixed: June's FOMC came during the post-IPO slide, September's was a +5% day. Market-wide news, not SpaceX news.

By category

Group	Events	5 days before	Event day	Day vs QQQ	Beat QQQ on the day	Day + 5 vs QQQ (avg / median)	Beat QQQ by day + 5	Volume vs 20-day avg
Unlocks	6	+0.8%	-0.1%	+0.3%	50%	+4.9% / +0.2%	67% (6)	1.5x
Launches / Starship	2	-3.0%	-1.8%	-1.1%	0%	+5.4% / +5.4%	50% (2)	0.9x
Compute, AI & big deals	6	+2.9%	-2.1%	-1.7%	0%	-5.1% / -7.4%	0% (3)	1.0x
Earnings	2	+4.2%	-2.9%	-3.0%	50%	+16.6% / +16.6%	100% (1)	2.8x
Elon statements	3	-2.5%	+2.5%	+2.0%	33%	+4.8% / +6.2%	67% (3)	0.9x
Macro / market	4	-2.3%	-1.4%	-0.6%	25%	-12.4% / -13.2%	0% (3)	1.1x

Averages are simple means. "Beat QQQ" is the hit rate: the share of events where SPCX did better than the Nasdaq-100. Day + 5 runs from the close before the event to 5 sessions after it. Events without 5 sessions after them yet are left out of that column.

Every event

#1 · 2026-06-12 · Macro / market

IPO: first trading day (priced $135 on 11 Jun)

5d beforen/a

Gapn/a

Event day+7.3%

vs QQQn/a

+1d+19.6%

+3d+19.2%

+5d-4.0%

+5d vs QQQ+0.2%

Volumen/a

Close $160.95 on 522M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

First session: day move is open to close; IPO price $135 to close is +19.2%.

Source: SpaceX 424B4
#2 · 2026-06-17 · Macro / market

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

5d beforen/a

Gap+4.0%

Event day-5.0%

vs QQQ-3.9%

+1d-3.6%

+3d-18.6%

+5d-20.2%

+5d vs QQQ-22.3%

Volumen/a

Close $191.82 on 202M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line); Broke below $157-159 zone; Broke below $160-161 zone; Broke below $167.60 (bulls-in-control line); Broke below $176.42 (recent high).

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar
#3 · 2026-07-24 · reaction on 2026-07-27 · Launches / Starship

Starship Flight 13: first Starlink V3 deploy (5:51pm CT, after the close)

5d before-4.0%

Gap-1.4%

Event day-1.4%

vs QQQ-1.1%

+1d+2.6%

+3d-1.1%

+5d+0.9%

+5d vs QQQ-2.8%

Volume0.8x

Close $113.50 on 65M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

Overlaps with: FOMC rate decision (2pm ET).

Source: SpaceX
#4 · 2026-07-29 · Macro / market

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

5d before+1.0%

Gap-1.7%

Event day-3.3%

vs QQQ-1.3%

+1d-0.3%

+3d+1.8%

+5d-3.8%

+5d vs QQQ-13.2%

Volume0.7x

Close $112.55 on 54M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

Overlaps with: Starship Flight 13: first Starlink V3 deploy (5:51pm CT, after the close).

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar
#5 · 2026-08-04 · reaction on 2026-08-05 · Earnings

Q2 2026 results + call (after the close)

5d before+11.3%

Gap-10.3%

Event day-13.6%

vs QQQ-12.7%

+1d+6.1%

+3d+28.1%

+5d+35.0%

+5d vs QQQ+16.6%

Volume3.1x

Close $108.27 on 208M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

Overlaps with: Lock-up release: 911.5M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates).

Source: SpaceX 8-K, 4 Aug 2026
#6 · 2026-08-06 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 911.5M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

5d before-3.5%

Gap-1.1%

Event day+6.1%

vs QQQ+6.5%

+1d+15.8%

+3d+16.0%

+5d+22.9%

+5d vs QQQ+28.4%

Volume3.4x

Close $114.92 on 255M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

Overlaps with: Q2 2026 results + call (after the close).

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#7 · 2026-08-14 · Compute, AI & big deals

Cursor merger closes: 391M new Class A shares (8-K)

5d before+6.2%

Gap+1.1%

Event day-0.9%

vs QQQ-0.8%

+1d+4.5%

+3d-0.2%

+5d-2.2%

+5d vs QQQ-0.5%

Volume0.9x

Close $140.00 on 97M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and rejected at $148 (bull-case line).

Source: SpaceX 8-K, 14 Aug 2026 (see Unlocks page)
#8 · 2026-08-20 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 319.0M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

5d before-1.2%

Gap-1.7%

Event day-4.0%

vs QQQ-3.3%

+1d+2.2%

+3d+3.0%

+5d+5.1%

+5d vs QQQ+0.2%

Volume1.0x

Close $134.00 on 120M shares. No TA level crossed or tested.

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#9 · 2026-09-09 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 319.0M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

5d before+7.9%

Gap-0.9%

Event day-3.9%

vs QQQ-3.6%

+1d+0.4%

+3d+0.4%

+5d+2.3%

+5d vs QQQ+0.2%

Volume1.4x

Close $147.55 on 121M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Lock-up release: 59.1M shares (180-day group, Rule 144 affiliates).

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#10 · 2026-09-10 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 59.1M shares (180-day group, Rule 144 affiliates)

5d before+4.9%

Gap-1.7%

Event day+0.4%

vs QQQ+1.5%

+1d+2.0%

+3d-3.2%

+5d+4.5%

+5d vs QQQ+4.8%

Volume1.4x

Close $148.18 on 119M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and rejected at $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Lock-up release: 319.0M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates).

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#11 · 2026-09-16 · Macro / market

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

5d before-2.8%

Gap+1.0%

Event day+5.2%

vs QQQ+5.1%

+1d+2.6%

+3d+0.6%

+5d-1.7%

+5d vs QQQ-1.8%

Volume1.4x

Close $150.88 on 109M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke above $148 (bull-case line); Tested and rejected at $157-159 zone.

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar
#12 · 2026-09-24 · Elon statements

Musk: SpaceX AI 'pole position in about 6 months'

5d before-4.2%

Gap-0.1%

Event day-0.2%

vs QQQ-0.2%

+1d+0.4%

+3d+0.8%

+5d+0.0%

+5d vs QQQ-0.3%

Volume0.8x

Close $148.03 on 73M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group (all)); Musk: Colossus 2 at 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, +220k 'next week'; Starship Flight 14: first orbital flight, 26 Starlink V3 (8:48am ET).

Source: Elon Musk on X, 24 Sep 2026
#13 · 2026-09-24 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group (all))

5d before-4.2%

Gap-0.1%

Event day-0.2%

vs QQQ-0.2%

+1d+0.4%

+3d+0.8%

+5d+0.0%

+5d vs QQQ-0.3%

Volume0.8x

Close $148.03 on 73M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Musk: SpaceX AI 'pole position in about 6 months'; Musk: Colossus 2 at 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, +220k 'next week'; Starship Flight 14: first orbital flight, 26 Starlink V3 (8:48am ET).

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#14 · 2026-09-25 · Elon statements

Musk: Colossus 2 at 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, +220k 'next week'

5d before-3.1%

Gap+0.2%

Event day+0.4%

vs QQQ-0.0%

+1d-2.2%

+3d+1.5%

+5d+6.9%

+5d vs QQQ+6.2%

Volume0.6x

Close $148.68 on 55M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Musk: SpaceX AI 'pole position in about 6 months'; Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group (all)); Starship Flight 14: first orbital flight, 26 Starlink V3 (8:48am ET).

Source: Elon Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026
#15 · 2026-09-28 · Launches / Starship

Starship Flight 14: first orbital flight, 26 Starlink V3 (8:48am ET)

5d before-2.1%

Gap-0.1%

Event day-2.2%

vs QQQ-1.1%

+1d+2.6%

+3d+1.8%

+5d+17.6%

+5d vs QQQ+13.5%

Volume0.9x

Close $145.47 on 84M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: Musk: SpaceX AI 'pole position in about 6 months'; Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group (all)); Musk: Colossus 2 at 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, +220k 'next week'.

Source: SpaceX
#16 · 2026-10-02 · Elon statements

Colossus 2: another 220k GB300 chips promised for the week of 28 Sep

5d before-0.4%

Gap+1.0%

Event day+7.3%

vs QQQ+6.3%

+1d+7.6%

+3d+5.4%

+5d+2.3%

+5d vs QQQ+8.5%

Volume1.3x

Close $158.96 on 120M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke above $157-159 zone; Broke above $160-161 zone; Tested and rejected at $167.60 (bulls-in-control line); Tested and rejected at $176.42 (recent high).

Catalysts-page item: a promised date, not a confirmed event.

Source: Elon Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026
#17 · 2026-10-07 · Compute, AI & big deals

Report: ~$40B Nvidia chip financing talks (unconfirmed)

5d before+14.0%

Gap-2.2%

Event day-2.5%

vs QQQ-2.3%

+1d-4.2%

+3d-2.5%

+5d-9.2%

+5d vs QQQ-7.5%

Volume0.8x

Close $167.60 on 77M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Tested and held $160-161 zone; Broke below $167.60 (bulls-in-control line).

Overlaps with: Grain 800 MHz spectrum deal (~$8B) for Starlink Mobile; Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group).

Source: CNBC, 7 Oct 2026
#18 · 2026-10-08 · Compute, AI & big deals

Grain 800 MHz spectrum deal (~$8B) for Starlink Mobile

5d before+13.2%

Gap-0.1%

Event day-4.2%

vs QQQ-2.9%

+1d+1.2%

+3d-2.5%

+5d-7.4%

+5d vs QQQ-7.4%

Volume0.7x

Close $160.57 on 72M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke below $157-159 zone; Broke below $160-161 zone; Broke below $167.60 (bulls-in-control line).

Overlaps with: Report: ~$40B Nvidia chip financing talks (unconfirmed); Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group).

Source: Grain press release, 8 Oct 2026
#19 · 2026-10-09 · Unlocks

Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group)

5d before+1.0%

Gap+3.0%

Event day+1.2%

vs QQQ+0.8%

+1d+0.5%

+3d-6.4%

+5d-10.2%

+5d vs QQQ-4.0%

Volume1.0x

Close $162.57 on 93M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke below $157-159 zone; Broke below $160-161 zone; Tested and rejected at $167.60 (bulls-in-control line).

Overlaps with: Report: ~$40B Nvidia chip financing talks (unconfirmed); Grain 800 MHz spectrum deal (~$8B) for Starlink Mobile.

Source: Unlocks page (424B4 + 8-K)
#20 · 2026-10-15 · Macro / market

KOSPI -7.57% AI-chip selloff: SPCX wicked to $140.66, closed $148.62

5d before-5.2%

Gap-3.5%

Event day-2.3%

vs QQQ-2.2%

+1d-1.7%

+3d-0.6%

+5dn/a

+5d vs QQQn/a

Volume1.1x

Close $148.62 on 101M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke below $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: $100B ARR target by December (CFO Bret Johnsen + Elon); Panke expects November; Tesla Roadster unveil.

Source: Panke premarket digest, 15 Oct 2026
#21 · 2026-10-15 · Compute, AI & big deals

$100B ARR target by December (CFO Bret Johnsen + Elon); Panke expects November

5d before-5.2%

Gap-3.5%

Event day-2.3%

vs QQQ-2.2%

+1d-1.7%

+3d-0.6%

+5dn/a

+5d vs QQQn/a

Volume1.1x

Close $148.62 on 101M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke below $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: KOSPI -7.57% AI-chip selloff: SPCX wicked to $140.66, closed $148.62; Tesla Roadster unveil.

Source: CFO at Goldman Communacopia 10 Sep + Elon on X
#22 · 2026-10-15 · Compute, AI & big deals

Tesla Roadster unveil

5d before-5.2%

Gap-3.5%

Event day-2.3%

vs QQQ-2.2%

+1d-1.7%

+3d-0.6%

+5dn/a

+5d vs QQQn/a

Volume1.1x

Close $148.62 on 101M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke below $148 (bull-case line).

Overlaps with: KOSPI -7.57% AI-chip selloff: SPCX wicked to $140.66, closed $148.62; $100B ARR target by December (CFO Bret Johnsen + Elon); Panke expects November.

Catalysts-page item: a promised date, not a confirmed event.

Source: Tesla on X, 14 Oct 2026 (livestream time); date from Tesla post, 28 Sep 2026
#23 · 2026-10-20 · reaction on 2026-10-21 · Earnings

SpaceX Q3 2026 results + audio webcast

5d before-2.9%

Gap+8.6%

Event day+7.8%

vs QQQ+6.7%

+1dn/a

+3dn/a

+5dn/a

+5d vs QQQn/a

Volume2.6x

Close $159.31 on 221M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke above $148 (bull-case line); Broke above $157-159 zone; Tested and rejected at $160-161 zone.

Overlaps with: Starfall reentry capsule, 2nd demo (Bandwagon-5 Falcon 9).

Catalysts-page item: a promised date, not a confirmed event.

Source: SpaceX on X, 16 Oct 2026
#24 · 2026-10-20 · Compute, AI & big deals

Starfall reentry capsule, 2nd demo (Bandwagon-5 Falcon 9)

5d before-5.5%

Gap-1.2%

Event day-0.1%

vs QQQ-0.0%

+1d+7.8%

+3dn/a

+5dn/a

+5d vs QQQn/a

Volume1.4x

Close $147.79 on 117M shares. Levels (close before → 3 sessions after): Broke above $148 (bull-case line); Broke above $157-159 zone; Tested and rejected at $160-161 zone.

Overlaps with: SpaceX Q3 2026 results + audio webcast.

Catalysts-page item: a promised date, not a confirmed event.

Source: SpaceX mission page, Bandwagon-5

Skipped (no session after them yet): 2026-10-21 Tesla Q3 2026 results + Q&A webcast.

How this is measured

Prices: Nasdaq official daily OHLCV (api.nasdaq.com historical) for SPCX and QQQ. Fetched 2026-10-22 10:51 UTC.
Reaction day: the session the news could first trade. After-the-close news (earnings, Flight 13) counts from the next session. When the time of day isn't known, the event's own date is used.
TA levels are today's spcx ta levels ($148, $157-159, $160-161, $167.60, $176.42). They weren't all in use earlier, so older level hits are context, not calls.
Q3 results (after the close Tue 20 Oct) are scored on Wed 21 Oct, the first session after the release. Left out because the date or timing isn't known: whether the 220k GB300 'next week' actually came online, the IPO-pricing day (no trade). Pre-IPO events (e.g. the 5 Jun Google deal) have no SPCX price.
Price change only. Correlation, not proof. Not financial advice.

Do catalysts move SpaceX?

SPCX daily close with events

What we see so far

By category

Every event

IPO: first trading day (priced $135 on 11 Jun)

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

Starship Flight 13: first Starlink V3 deploy (5:51pm CT, after the close)

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

Q2 2026 results + call (after the close)

Lock-up release: 911.5M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

Cursor merger closes: 391M new Class A shares (8-K)

Lock-up release: 319.0M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

Lock-up release: 319.0M shares (180-day group, non-affiliates)

Lock-up release: 59.1M shares (180-day group, Rule 144 affiliates)

FOMC rate decision (2pm ET)

Musk: SpaceX AI 'pole position in about 6 months'

Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group (all))

Musk: Colossus 2 at 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, +220k 'next week'

Starship Flight 14: first orbital flight, 26 Starlink V3 (8:48am ET)

Colossus 2: another 220k GB300 chips promised for the week of 28 Sep

Report: ~$40B Nvidia chip financing talks (unconfirmed)

Grain 800 MHz spectrum deal (~$8B) for Starlink Mobile

Lock-up release: 328.4M shares (180-day group)

KOSPI -7.57% AI-chip selloff: SPCX wicked to $140.66, closed $148.62

$100B ARR target by December (CFO Bret Johnsen + Elon); Panke expects November

Tesla Roadster unveil

SpaceX Q3 2026 results + audio webcast

Starfall reentry capsule, 2nd demo (Bandwagon-5 Falcon 9)

How this is measured