SPCX real float · after the 22 Oct unlock
Only 31% of SpaceX can actually trade.
Short interest is 1.3% of all SpaceX shares, but 4.3% of the shares that can actually trade: 3.2x higher.
The float, in shares
| Sold at the IPO (12 Jun) | 638,888,888 |
| Released by lock-ups, 6 Aug to 22 Oct (7 unlock days, incl. today's 1.31B) | 3,579,000,000 |
| Can trade now (Panke estimate) | 4,217,888,888 |
| All shares outstanding | 13,572,821,625 |
Estimate: IPO shares plus every lock-up release to date, from the 424B4 prospectus schedule on /unlocks. Assumes all released shares can trade; Rule 144 volume limits on affiliates and holders who simply don't sell make the real float smaller, not bigger. Share total: 13,572,821,625 shares is our own sum: 13,181,779,945 from the 10-Q cover (as of 28 Jul 2026) plus 391,041,680 Class A issued in the Cursor merger (8-K, 14 Aug 2026). It is not a company-reported total. It will be replaced by the Q3 10-Q count in November.
Short interest: all shares vs real float
| Measure | Short interest |
|---|---|
| Shares sold short (30 Sep settlement) | 181.0M |
| % of all 13.573B shares | 1.33% |
| % of today's real float (4.22B) | 4.29% |
| % of the float on 30 Sep (2.58B, before the 9 and 22 Oct unlocks) | 7.03% |
| Days to cover | 1.83 |
Source: Nasdaq.com SPCX short interest (FINRA data, published twice a month about 2 weeks late). The next print (15 Oct settlement) is due around 27 Oct. Float percentages are Panke math.
Coming unlocks
| Date | Who | Shares | Float after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct 2026 (day 135) 2d Saturday: first trading day Mon 26 Oct | 180-day group | 328.4M | 33% |
| Tue 8 Dec 2026 (day 180) 47d 180-day lock-up ends | 180-day group, remainder | 784.0M | 39% |
| 2nd full trading day after Q4 2026 results · date not set (~Feb/Mar 2027) | Extended group (not Musk) | 351.9M | 42% |
| Thu 18 Mar 2027 (day 280) 147d | Extended group | 176.0M | 43% |
| 2nd full trading day after Q1 2027 results · date not set (~May 2027) | Extended group | 351.9M | 46% |
| Mon 17 May 2027 (day 340) 207d | Extended group | 176.0M | 47% |
| Sat 12 Jun 2027 (day 366) 233d | Extended group | 351.9M | 50% |
| Sat 12 Jun 2027 (day 366) 233d | Elon Musk, all shares | 6418.5M | 97% |
| 2nd full trading day after Q2 2027 results · date not set (~Aug 2027) | Extended group, remainder | 351.9M | 100% |
Dates and sizes: SpaceX 424B4, pp. 259–261 and 269–273, via /unlocks. Extended-group dates tied to future earnings aren't set yet. Goldman can waive lock-ups early. Not financial advice.