What's next for SpaceX and Tesla.

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1. 0days

   Thu 22 Oct 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   SpaceX lock-up release: up to 1.31B shares (28%)

   Second full Nasdaq trading day after Q3 results (out Tue 20 Oct after the close). 28% of the 180-day pool (28% of 4,691.4M = 1,313.6M), the largest single step in the schedule. Unlocked means allowed to sell, not sold.

   Source: SpaceX 424B4 prospectus

2. 2days

   Sat 24 Oct 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   SpaceX lock-up release: up to 328.4M shares

   Day 135 of the 180-day lock-up. Saturday, so the first day they can be sold is Mon 26 Oct.

   Source: SpaceX 424B4 prospectus

3. 4days

   Mon 26 Oct 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   First trading day for the 24 Oct unlock

   Unlocked means allowed to sell, not sold.

   Source: Unlocks page

4. 9days

   Sat 31 Oct 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   Google compute deal: GPU delivery grace period ends

   SpaceX had to give Google ~110,000 GPUs by 30 Sep; after a one-month grace period Google may cancel or pay less for fewer GPUs. Full $920M/month fee runs from October 2026. Whether delivery was met hasn't been disclosed; watch the Q3 report.

   Source: SpaceX filing, 5 Jun 2026 (Reuters / TechCrunch)

5. 9days

   Sat 31 Oct 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   SpaceX: nearly 2.2 GW nameplate compute by end of October (CFO, Q3 call; one transcript has "nearly 2")

   Q3 webcast 20 Oct guidance.

   Source:

6. 10days

   Sun 1 Nov 2026 · SPCX musk-said

   Colossus 2: another ~220k GB300 in November (Musk-said)

   Musk 25 Sep 2026: 'and another 220k in November.' No exact day (shown at start of month). Chip count only; ~0.44 GW/month is our estimate from chip counts (~2 kW all-in each), not a figure Musk gave. The Q2 10-Q showed ~0.4 GW added over the whole quarter (1.0 to 1.4 GW).

   Source: Elon Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026

7. 17days

   Sun 8 Nov 2026 · SPCX tentative

   Starship Flight 15 (no earlier than)

   FAA air-traffic planning slide, 8 Oct: NET 8 Nov from Starbase (not a SpaceX-announced date; slipped from 19 Oct). Q3 call 20 Oct, Musk: Flight 15 'we expect to happen next month' and SpaceX will try to catch BOTH the booster and the ship, the first full recovery of an orbital rocket if it works ('more likely than not'). No exact day from SpaceX.

   Source: FAA CADENA planning deck, 8 Oct 2026 (via Behind The Black); Musk on Q3 call, 20 Oct (via Space.com)

8. 25days

   Mon 16 Nov 2026 · SPCX confirmed

   Q3 13F filing deadline

   Funds must file holdings as of 30 Sep within 45 days. 14 Nov is a Saturday, so the deadline moves to Mon 16 Nov. Expect new SpaceX lines on the 13F board.

   Source: SEC Form 13F FAQ (45-day rule)

9. 25days

   Mon 16 Nov 2026 · SPCX tentative

   Anthropic IPO: public S-1 as soon as 23-26 Oct, pricing reported week of 16 Nov

   Reported, not announced: confidential S-1 filed June; public S-1 as soon as Fri 23 Oct (Yahoo) or 26 Oct (IFR); roadshow 9 Nov, pricing the week after; up to $100B raised at ~$2T, though some investors now discuss ~$1.5T (Reuters 15 Oct); Morgan Stanley and Goldman lead. Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25B a month for compute, so its IPO valuation is a direct read-across for SpaceX's AI compute business.

   Source: IFR, week of 17 Oct 2026 (also Yahoo Finance 21 Oct, Reuters 15 Oct)

10. 39days

    Mon 30 Nov 2026 · SPCX confirmed

    FAA comment deadline: Starship up to 456 launches a year from Starbase

    FAA opened an environmental impact review of SpaceX's request to go from 25 to up to 456 Starship launches and 912 landings a year at Boca Chica (phase 1: up to 100 launches). Public comments close 30 Nov; scoping meetings 17 and 19 Nov in Brownsville and Port Isabel, virtual on 18 Nov. Only the start of a multi-year review, not an approval.

    Source: FAA notice of intent, Federal Register, 14 Oct 2026

11. 42days

    Thu 3 Dec 2026 · TSLA confirmed

    Tesla 2026 annual shareholder meeting

    Tesla DEF 14A filed 19 Oct 2026: annual meeting 3 Dec 2026, votes close 2 Dec.

    Source: Texas AGM timing via Barclays note, 14 Oct 2026 (also Tesla 10-K/A via Electrek, 29 Sep)

12. 47days

    Tue 8 Dec 2026 · SPCX confirmed

    SpaceX lock-up: 180-day group fully free

    Day 180. Remainder of the 180-day pool, up to 784.0M shares.

    Source: SpaceX 424B4 prospectus

13. 49days

    Thu 10 Dec 2026 · SPCX tentative

    Starship Flight 16, Starlink 30-1 (no earlier than)

    FAA air-traffic planning slide, 8 Oct: NET 10 Dec, possibly from Florida (KSC 39A). Not a SpaceX-announced date; slipped from 30 Oct. Not the first Starship Starlink flight: Flight 14 already deployed the first 26 Starlink V3 satellites on 28 Sep.

    Source: FAA CADENA planning deck, 8 Oct 2026 (via SpaceNotices / NASASpaceflight)

14. 70days

    Thu 31 Dec 2026 · SPCX confirmed

    Google compute deal: cancel window opens

    After 31 Dec 2026, SpaceX or Google can end the $920M/month deal with 90 days' notice. The Anthropic deal ($1.25B/month) can already be ended on 90 days' notice.

    Source: SpaceX filing, 5 Jun 2026 (Reuters / TechCrunch)

15. 70days

    Thu 31 Dec 2026 · SPCX confirmed

    Musk target: over 2 GW of AI compute by year end

    Q3 call 20 Oct: 1.7 GW at 30 Sep, nearly 2.2 GW by end of October (CFO, Q3 call; one transcript has "nearly 2"), 2.5 to 3 GW nameplate by end of Q4 (company guidance now).

    Source: Q2 2026 earnings call, 4 Aug (via TSN Media)

16. 70days

    Thu 31 Dec 2026 · SPCX musk-said

    Colossus 2: maybe another ~220k GB300 by late December (Musk-said)

    Musk 25 Sep 2026: 'If we get lucky, yet another 220k GB300 by late December.' Soft/conditional.

    Source: Elon Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026

17. 70days

    Thu 31 Dec 2026 · SPCX confirmed

    SpaceX: $100B ARR exit 2026, Q4 capex $35B to $40B

    Q3 webcast 20 Oct. ARR = December revenue annualized. Q1 2027 revenue guided $33B to $37B.

    Source:

18. 153days

    Wed 24 Mar 2027 · SPCX musk-said

    Musk: SpaceX AI in 'pole position' in ~6 months (~late Mar 2027)

    Musk 24 Sep 2026: 'If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months.' Conditional claim; ~late March 2027 is our reading of '6 months', not a hard date.

    Source: Elon Musk on X, 24 Sep 2026

19. 191days

    Sat 1 May 2027 · SPCX musk-said

    Terafab: first functional test chip, ~May or June 2027 (Musk-said)

    Musk on Q3 call 20 Oct: internal aim is a first working test chip (an SRAM-type line test) around May or June 2027 at the Austin research fab, 'big error bars'. No exact day (shown at start of May).

    Source: SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, 20 Oct (StockAnalysis)

20. 233days

    Sat 12 Jun 2027 · SPCX confirmed

    Earliest S&P 500 eligibility + Musk lock-up ends

    12 months of trading needed first (S&P kept the rule on 4 Jun 2026). Also needs GAAP profits. Musk's 6.42B shares unlock the same day (Saturday; first trade Mon 14 Jun).

    Source: S&P DJI consultation result, 4 Jun 2026 + 424B4

21. 251days

    Wed 30 Jun 2027 · SPCX musk-said

    Weekly Starship flights targeted in H1 2027

    Q3 webcast 20 Oct. Shown at end of H1.

    Source:

22. 435days

    Fri 31 Dec 2027 · SPCX musk-said

    Musk target: maybe more than 10 GW of AI compute by end of 2027

    Musk 15 Oct 2026 replied 'Maybe more than 10GW' to a BG2 clip that said he wants 10 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027. Soft/conditional; not company guidance. Chip/GW math on the tape is our estimate, not a figure Musk gave in that reply.

    Source: Elon Musk on X, 15 Oct 2026 (quoting BG2 clip)

23. 618days

    Sat 1 Jul 2028 · SPCX musk-said

    Terafab: volume chip production, Q3 to Q4 2028 (Musk-said)

    Musk on Q3 call 20 Oct: 'aspiration' is volume production around Q3 2028 at the main Terafab site (Gibbons Creek, Texas), Q3 or Q4 2028 'at least in the set of possible outcomes'. Called the dates very aggressive. Shown at start of Q3.

    Source: SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, 20 Oct (StockAnalysis)

24. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX musk-said

    Grok 5 release

    Musk on 4 Aug: 'should be out before the end of this year'. On 14 Sep he put Grok 4.8 and 4.9 first. No official date; earlier Q1 and Q2 targets slipped.

    Source: Musk statements (timeline via ZBuild)

25. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX tba

    FCC approval of the Grain 800 MHz spectrum deal (~$8B)

    Definitive agreement announced 8 Oct 2026: SpaceX buys Grain's nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile (hybrid satellite + terrestrial). ~$8B cash per WSJ; price not in the Grain PR. Needs FCC approval and customary closing; SpaceX asked for expedited review. Close expected in H1 2027, subject to regulatory approval (Mobile World Live, 21 Oct).

    Source: Grain press release + SpaceX FCC application, 8 Oct 2026

26. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX unconfirmed

    ~$40B Nvidia chip financing talks (unconfirmed)

    Reported talks only: ~$10B bank loans + ~$30B investment-grade debt, Apollo leading, Pimco in talks. FT says closing expected in 2027; Bloomberg says talks are early and may not happen. No definitive agreement or close date; not confirmed by SpaceX.

    Source: CNBC 7 Oct 2026 (also FT, Bloomberg)

27. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX unconfirmed

    Barclays: Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement possible before December

    Barclays (Dan Levy) 14 Oct: announcement possible before December. 20 Oct Q3 call: Musk confirmed both companies formed special committees, called a deal a good idea but said no terms are agreed and there's no guarantee. Bloomberg 22 Oct (people familiar): push to announce in H1 2027 so it closes before Trump's term ends (Jan 2029). Reuters 22 Oct: Musk's public comments may delay talks by several weeks. Nothing agreed or announced.

    Source: Barclays note 14 Oct (via Yahoo Finance); Bloomberg 22 Oct (via Yahoo Finance)

28. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX musk-said

    Star Mind computer (SpaceX + Nvidia) in volume production in 2027 (Musk-said)

    Musk 15 Oct 2026: the Star Mind computer co-engineered by SpaceX and Nvidia 'will reach volume production next year.' No month given; his claim, not company guidance.

    Source: Elon Musk on X, 15 Oct 2026

29. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX tentative

    Starlink Mobile own carrier service turns on, early 2028

    Shotwell on Q3 call 20 Oct: Mobile V2 constellation (15,000 satellites, FCC-approved) launches during 2027; SpaceX's own direct-to-device service on the new 800 MHz spectrum turns on in early 2028. Starlink Mobile passed 22M monthly users at 30 Sep (+37% QoQ). Company target, no exact date.

    Source: Mobile World Live, 21 Oct 2026 (Q3 call)

30. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX tentative

    OpenAI: ~$30B raise at $1.4T+ (talks), IPO targeted 2027

    Reported, not announced: OpenAI is racing to close a ~$30B round valuing it at more than $1.4T before Anthropic's mid-November IPO, with SoftBank and MGX in talks (Reuters 19 Oct, two sources). Last valued at $852B after a $122B round in March. Confidential IPO filing in June; CFO Sarah Friar told staff it 'will be a public company in 2027', sooner if the business keeps inflecting (CNBC 19 Aug). Higher OpenAI and Anthropic price tags raise the bar for what xAI, Grok and Grok Bot are worth inside SpaceX.

    Source: Reuters via Investing.com, 19 Oct 2026 (also CNBC 19 Aug 2026)

31. TBA

    Date TBA · SPCX tba

    Meta's Muse AI agent: 10M+ users in ~6 weeks (growth benchmark for Grok Bot)

    Meta's personal AI agent launched 8 Sep (US and Canada only). Meta said on its Q3 call 21 Oct it has more than 10M users and about 25% of people who set it up use it daily. Sensor Tower: 10.9M downloads in 40 days, 2.5M daily users on 16 Oct (+15% week over week). Apptopia puts Grok Bot's US AI-app download share at 3.8% and rising. Muse shows how fast a consumer AI agent can scale, so it's the benchmark for Grok Bot's growth.

    Source: TechCrunch, 21 Oct 2026 (Meta Q3 call; also TechCrunch/Sensor Tower 20 Oct, Apptopia)

32. Done

    Fri 2 Oct 2026 · SPCX musk-said

    Colossus 2: another 220k GB300 chips promised for the week of 28 Sep

    Musk on 25 Sep: Colossus 2 has 110k GB200 + 440k GB300, and 'another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week'. As of 18 Oct he hasn't confirmed it happened, so we can't call it done or late yet.

    Source: Elon Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026

33. Done

    Thu 15 Oct 2026 · TSLA confirmed

    Tesla Roadster unveil

    Outdoor demo near Waco, Texas. Moved from 1 Oct for weather. Livestream on X Thu 15 Oct at 7:55 pm Central (02:55 Fri 16 Oct Amsterdam), per Tesla.

    Source: Tesla on X, 14 Oct 2026 (livestream time); date from Tesla post, 28 Sep 2026

34. Done

    Tue 20 Oct 2026 · SPCX done

    SpaceX Q3 2026 results + audio webcast

    Done 20 Oct. Revenue $14.58B vs LSEG $12.74B (beat 14%). GAAP EPS $0.35 vs $0.14. Guided Q1 2027 revenue $33B to $37B, Q4 capex $35B to $40B. Stock +9.8% intraday 21 Oct.

    Source: SpaceX on X, 16 Oct 2026

35. Done

    Tue 20 Oct 2026 · SPCX done

    Starfall reentry capsule, 2nd demo (Bandwagon-5 Falcon 9)

    Scrubbed 19 Oct for weather, launched Tue 20 Oct 7:04 am ET from SLC-40. Starfall deployed last at T+2:48. Booster B1085 landed (19th flight).

    Source: SpaceX mission page, Bandwagon-5

36. Done

    Wed 21 Oct 2026 · TSLA done

    Tesla Q3 2026 results + Q&A webcast

    Done 21 Oct. Revenue $28.05B (flat YoY, a hair under the ~$28.06B consensus). Non-GAAP EPS $0.48 vs ~$0.45 expected; GAAP EPS $0.22, net income $787M (down 44%). Free cash flow $1.5B.

    Source: Tesla Q3 2026 Update, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (21 Oct 2026); consensus via MarketBeat

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