As of 22 Oct 2026 · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings
Q3 beat: $14.58B revenue.Street was $12.7B
Reported Tue 20 Oct after the close (8-K): revenue $14.58B, up 161% year over year; net income $4.40B; GAAP EPS $0.35 vs $0.14 expected (LSEG); adj. EBITDA $8.8B. SPCX closed +7.79% at $159.31 on Wed 21 Oct. The 1.31B-share unlock (2nd full trading day after results) is Thu 22 Oct.
Key dates
| Date | What |
|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct | Up to 1.3B shares unlock (2nd full trading day after Q3). Biggest release yet424B4 lock-up schedule |
| Mon 26 Oct | Up to 328.4M shares tradable (the Sat 24 Oct release)424B4 |
| Tue 8 Dec | Up to 797.6M shares, 180-day lock-up fully over (prospectus figure; /unlocks counts 784.0M after removing the failed 455.8M trigger once)424B4 |
Full schedule: /unlocks
Actual results
Reported Official 8-K (20 Oct). GAAP diluted EPS $0.35 vs LSEG $0.14. Net income $4.4B, adj. EBITDA $8.8B, op income $2.8B. Starlink 13.6M subs (+1.6M), ARPU $69. Compute 1.7 GW. Capex $19.6B. AI = SI segment. · release
| Line | Q2 | Q3 | vs Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81B | $14.57B | +87% |
| AI | $2.56B | $7.56B | +195% |
| Starlink | $4.29B | $5.25B | +22% |
| Space | $0.96B | $1.77B | +84% |
| EPS (GAAP diluted) | -$0.09 | $0.35 | Beat vs $0.14 est |
Webcast guidance (20 Oct)
- Q1 2027 revenue guided to $33B to $37B (Street about $22B to $25B per Pivotal).
- Q4 2026 capex $35B to $40B. Q4 gross margin back toward Q2 levels after one-time Q3 mix benefits.
- On track for $100B ARR by end of 2026 (December run rate). Musk: $500B to $1T exit ARR possible by end of 2027.
- Compute: nearly 2.2 GW by end of October (CFO, Q3 call; one transcript has "nearly 2"), 2.5 to 3 GW by end of Q4, 10 GW more in 2027 (20 GW upside case).
- Backlog $63B at 30 Sep, $17.5B of it deferred revenue, about $42B expected within a year.
- Weekly Starship flights targeted in H1 2027.
- Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to look at a combination (Musk on the call; Goldman note via Investing.com). Nothing agreed.
Every verified revenue estimate
Billions of dollars. Blank = not published. Beat / miss fills in from the actual total.
-
UBS (John Hodulik)29 Sep
$13.80B total revenue
AI $7.6BStarlink $4.9BSpace $1.3B Beat +5.6%Adj. EBITDA $7.5B; 2.3M sub adds, 14.3M subs; 35 launches · Proactive Investors, TipRanks
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Citi (John Godyn)Oct
no total published
AI $6.9BStarlink $4.9BSegments only; vs AI consensus $6.4B and Connectivity $4.8B · TipRanks
-
BusinessQuant consensusOct
$13.43B total revenue
Beat +8.5%Range $12.97B to $13.90B · BusinessQuant
-
Benzinga consensusOct
$12.89B total revenue
Beat +13.1%EPS $0.16 · Benzinga
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TipRanks consensus16 Oct
$12.89B total revenue
AI $6.4BStarlink $4.8B Beat +13.1%EPS $0.14; range $10.68B to $16.55B (was $12.86B). Segments from earlier TipRanks article · TipRanks
-
LSEG poll16 Oct
$12.74B total revenue
Beat +14.4%EPS $0.14 · CNBC
-
FactSet consensus17 Oct
$12.89B total revenue
AI $6.5BStarlink $4.8BSpace $1.4B Beat +13.1%EPS $0.14 (some recent estimates nearer $0.23); cash burn $10.8B. First Street number for Space · FactSet via CoinGabbar, CoinCentral
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Panke math (base)16 Oct
$12.90B total revenue
AI $6.8BStarlink $4.9BSpace $1.2B Beat +13.0%My projection, not guidance · Panke
-
Panke math (bull)16 Oct
$13.90B total revenue
AI $7.6BStarlink $5.0BSpace $1.3B Beat +4.9%My projection, not guidance · Panke
| Who | Date | Total | AI | Connectivity | Space | Beat / miss | Note · source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS (John Hodulik) | 29 Sep | $13.80B | $7.6B | $4.9B | $1.3B | Beat +5.6% | Adj. EBITDA $7.5B; 2.3M sub adds, 14.3M subs; 35 launches · Proactive Investors, TipRanks |
| Citi (John Godyn) | Oct | $6.9B | $4.9B | Segments only; vs AI consensus $6.4B and Connectivity $4.8B · TipRanks | |||
| BusinessQuant consensus | Oct | $13.43B | Beat +8.5% | Range $12.97B to $13.90B · BusinessQuant | |||
| Benzinga consensus | Oct | $12.89B | Beat +13.1% | EPS $0.16 · Benzinga | |||
| TipRanks consensus | 16 Oct | $12.89B | $6.4B | $4.8B | Beat +13.1% | EPS $0.14; range $10.68B to $16.55B (was $12.86B). Segments from earlier TipRanks article · TipRanks | |
| LSEG poll | 16 Oct | $12.74B | Beat +14.4% | EPS $0.14 · CNBC | |||
| FactSet consensus | 17 Oct | $12.89B | $6.5B | $4.8B | $1.4B | Beat +13.1% | EPS $0.14 (some recent estimates nearer $0.23); cash burn $10.8B. First Street number for Space · FactSet via CoinGabbar, CoinCentral |
| Panke math (base) | 16 Oct | $12.90B | $6.8B | $4.9B | $1.2B | Beat +13.0% | My projection, not guidance · Panke |
| Panke math (bull) | 16 Oct | $13.90B | $7.6B | $5.0B | $1.3B | Beat +4.9% | My projection, not guidance · Panke |
Other bank numbers (not Q3 revenue)
Post-earnings 21 Oct: JPMorgan $500 (from $240), Cantor $345 (from $246), Barclays $300 (from $254), Wells Fargo $274 (from $214), Pivotal $260 (from $230), Goldman $245 (from $230), Citi $240 (from $200), UBS $230 (from $210), TD Cowen $224 (from $200). Bernstein $248, Raymond James $800, Piper Sandler $140 Neutral reiterated.
Evercore ISI (Kutgun Maral, 16 Oct): exit-2026 annualized revenue near $104B, ~2.3 GW compute by end of 2026, ~$30/watt 2027 pricing. No Q3 revenue number published. (Benzinga)
Goldman Sachs (8 Oct): full-year 2026 revenue $51.6B, 2027 $127.5B. (Leverage Shares, citing Investing.com)
Morgan Stanley (Aug): full-year 2026 revenue $45B to $48B, 2027 $91B to $102B. (Business Insider)
No verified Q3 revenue estimate found for Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JPMorgan, BofA, Deutsche Bank, Evercore, Barclays or Jefferies.
Segments: Q2 actual vs Street vs Panke math
AIQ2 $2.56B
$6.8-7.6B Panke base to bull
Street $6.4B+166% to +197% vs Q2StarlinkQ2 $4.29B
$4.9-5.0B Panke base to bull
Street $4.8B+14% to +17% vs Q2SpaceQ2 $0.96B
$1.2-1.3B Panke base to bull
Street n/a+25% to +35% vs Q2TotalQ2 $7.81B
$12.9-13.9B Panke base to bull
Street $12.7B+65% to +78% vs Q2
| Segment | Q2 actual | Street Q3 | Panke base | Panke bull | Growth vs Q2 (base to bull) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | $2.56B | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.6B | +166% to +197% |
| Connectivity (Starlink) | $4.29B | $4.8B | $4.9B | $5.0B | +14% to +17% |
| Space | $0.96B | no consensus | $1.2B | $1.3B | +25% to +35% |
| Total | $7.81B | $12.7B | $12.9B | $13.9B | +65% to +78% |
Street segments: TipRanks consensus (AI $6.4B, Connectivity $4.8B). Street total: LSEG $12.74B. Panke base/bull are my projections, not guidance.
Panke math (my projection, not guidance)
Anthropic pays $1.25B a month (filed), so about $3.75B a quarter from one customer. Google's $920M a month starts in October, so it lands in Q4, not Q3.
About 2.1 GW of compute live in November at roughly $48B a year per GW = around $100B a year of AI revenue run rate.
10 GW by end of 2027 = $300B to $500B a year. SpaceX is valued at about $2.0T today.
Q2 recap: the last beat
Q2 revenue was $7.81B vs a $6.87B consensus. A +13.7% beat (Benzinga). Revenue +92% on the year.
The same +13.7% beat on today's estimates: LSEG $12.74B → $14.5B · BusinessQuant $13.43B → $15.3B.
Price targets
JPMorganOverweight
$500 +236% vs $148.62
Doug Anmuth, raised from $240 on 21 Oct
Cantor FitzgeraldOverweight
$345 +132% vs $148.62
Colin Canfield, raised from $246 on 21 Oct
Morgan StanleyOverweight
$300 +102% vs $148.62
Adam Jonas, reiterated 26 Aug / Oct
BarclaysOverweight
$300 +102% vs $148.62
Anthony Valentini, raised from $254 on 21 Oct
Evercore ISIOutperform
$275 +85% vs $148.62
Kutgun Maral, raised from $230 on 16 Oct
Wells FargoOverweight
$274 +84% vs $148.62
Ken Gawrelski, raised from $214 on 21 Oct
Pivotal ResearchBuy
$260 +75% vs $148.62
raised from $230 on 21 Oct
Goldman SachsBuy
$245 +65% vs $148.62
raised from $230 on 21 Oct
CitiBuy
$240 +61% vs $148.62
John Godyn, raised from $200 on 21 Oct
Deutsche BankBuy
$235 +58% vs $148.62
Edison Yu, reiterated 21 Oct (post-Q3)
Bank of AmericaBuy
$235 +58% vs $148.62
Ronald Epstein, initiated 7 Jul
UBSBuy
$230 +55% vs $148.62
John Hodulik, raised from $210 on 21 Oct
TD CowenBuy
$224 +51% vs $148.62
raised from $200 on 21 Oct
| Firm | Rating | Target | vs $148.62 (15 Oct close) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | Overweight | $500 | +236% | Doug Anmuth, raised from $240 on 21 Oct |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $345 | +132% | Colin Canfield, raised from $246 on 21 Oct |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $300 | +102% | Adam Jonas, reiterated 26 Aug / Oct |
| Barclays | Overweight | $300 | +102% | Anthony Valentini, raised from $254 on 21 Oct |
| Evercore ISI | Outperform | $275 | +85% | Kutgun Maral, raised from $230 on 16 Oct |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | $274 | +84% | Ken Gawrelski, raised from $214 on 21 Oct |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | $260 | +75% | raised from $230 on 21 Oct |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $245 | +65% | raised from $230 on 21 Oct |
| Citi | Buy | $240 | +61% | John Godyn, raised from $200 on 21 Oct |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | $235 | +58% | Edison Yu, reiterated 21 Oct (post-Q3) |
| Bank of America | Buy | $235 | +58% | Ronald Epstein, initiated 7 Jul |
| UBS | Buy | $230 | +55% | John Hodulik, raised from $210 on 21 Oct |
| TD Cowen | Buy | $224 | +51% | raised from $200 on 21 Oct |
Charts
Sources
- SpaceX Q3 date release (IR, @SpaceX), 16 Oct
- SpaceX 424B4 prospectus, lock-up schedule
- SpaceX Q2 2026 results (8-K, 4 Aug) and 10-Q
- UBS Q3 preview (Proactive Investors, 29 Sep)
- UBS Q3 preview (TipRanks)
- Citi segments and TipRanks consensus
- BusinessQuant estimates
- Benzinga earnings and forecasts (Q2 consensus $6.87B)
- Evercore Q3 preview (Benzinga, 16 Oct)
- LSEG poll via CNBC, 16 Oct
- Price targets (pricetargets.com)
- Goldman 2026 to 2028 estimates (Leverage Shares)
- Morgan Stanley and others after Q2 (Business Insider)
- TipRanks SPCX forecast page (consensus and average target, 16 Oct)
- FactSet Q3 consensus incl. segments (CoinGabbar, 17 Oct)
- FactSet Q3 consensus (CoinCentral)
- JPMorgan target raised to $240 (TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, 6 Aug)
- Q3 webcast transcript (Investing.com)
- JPMorgan $500 (CNBC, 21 Oct)
- Pivotal $260, Goldman $245, guidance (Investing.com, 21 Oct)
- Cantor $345 (GuruFocus, 21 Oct)
- Citi $240 (TheFly)
- TD Cowen $224 (TheFly)
- Barclays $300, UBS $230 (TipRanks)
- Q2 GAAP EPS -$0.09 (10-Q)
Estimates change. Panke math is a projection. Not financial advice.