SpaceX AI compute · promised vs delivered
1.7 GW
Promised vs delivered.
SpaceX had 1.7 GW at 30 Sep. It promised nearly 2.2 GW by 31 Oct (CFO, Q3 call; one transcript has "nearly 2") and 2.5 to 3 GW by 31 Dec. We check every date.
Nameplate compute, GW
Solid = confirmed. Striped = promised. 30 Jun: SpaceX Q2 10-Q. 30 Sep and targets: CFO Bret Johnsen, Q3 2026 earnings call, 20 Oct (Motley Fool transcript).
Every promise, with receipts
| Promise | Due | Confirmed so far |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2 GW of AI compute by year end SpaceX, Q2 call, 4 Aug 2026 · TSN Media recap of Q2 call |
31 Dec 2026 | On track 1.7 GW nameplate at 30 Sep (CFO, Q3 call). Target raised to 2.5 to 3 GW by end of Q4. |
| Nearly 2.2 GW nameplate by end of October (CFO, Q3 call; one transcript has "nearly 2") CFO Bret Johnsen, Q3 call, 20 Oct 2026 · Q3 call transcript |
31 Oct 2026 | Check 31 Oct 1.7 GW at 30 Sep, plus "additional data halls already online in early October". No new total yet. |
| 2.5 to 3 GW nameplate by end of Q4 CFO + Musk, Q3 call, 20 Oct 2026 · Q3 call transcript |
31 Dec 2026 | Check year end Not yet. Needs +0.8 to 1.3 GW in Q4 from 1.7 GW at 30 Sep vs ~0.3 GW added in Q3. |
| Another 220k GB300 fully operational "next week" (week of 28 Sep) Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026 · Elon Musk on X |
~2 Oct 2026 | Unconfirmed Not confirmed as a single batch. On the Q3 call Musk said they are turning on about 200k to 220k GB300s a month. |
| Colossus 2 has 110k GB200 + 440k GB300 Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026 · Elon Musk on X |
Stated as done | Musk-said Musk's own count. Not broken out in the 8-K or call. |
| Another ~220k GB300 in November Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026 · Elon Musk on X |
30 Nov 2026 | Check November Pending. |
| "If we get lucky", yet another 220k GB300 by late December Musk on X, 25 Sep 2026 · Elon Musk on X |
31 Dec 2026 | Check year end Pending. Conditional. |
| ~110,000 GPUs delivered to Google by 30 Sep (contract) SpaceX filing, 5 Jun 2026 · Reuters |
30 Sep, grace to 31 Oct | Check 31 Oct Not disclosed in the Q3 release or call. |
| +10 GW in 2027 ("highly confident"), ~13 GW total by end 2027; 20 GW+ a "small possibility" Musk, Q3 call, 20 Oct 2026 · Q3 call transcript |
31 Dec 2027 | 2027 Long-dated. |
| 440,000 Vera Rubin training cluster online Musk, Q3 call, 20 Oct 2026 · Q3 call transcript |
End of Q2 2027 | 2027 Long-dated. |
Checkpoints
| Sat 31 Oct 2026 | Nearly 2.2 GW? Google GPU grace period ends. |
| Mon 30 Nov 2026 | Another ~220k GB300 (Musk). |
| Thu 31 Dec 2026 | 2.5 to 3 GW nameplate. Over 2 GW year-end promise. |
Updated 2026-10-22. "Musk-said" means a post or remark, not company guidance. Not financial advice. More dates: /catalysts.