1 · Starlink
35 / 36
35 in · 0 bull · 1 named · 0 out
Today’s constellation, subscribers, ARPU, V3 / mobile / suburban broadband.
As of 21 Oct 2026 · last close $159.31 · Wed 21 Oct 2026 close (Nasdaq official)
What they priced. What they left out.
Eight SpaceX verticals against every published 12-month price target. A mention in the write-up is not a number in the model. Only IN means dollars in the 12-month target.
Last close $159.31 (Wed 21 Oct 2026, Nasdaq official). Street average $247 across 36 sell-side 12-month targets on this board, median $237.5. High $800 (Raymond James). Low $75 (Phillip). Post-Q3 changes 21 Oct: JPMorgan $240 to $500, Cantor $246 to $345, Barclays $254 to $300, Wells Fargo $214 to $274, Pivotal $230 to $260, Clear Street $217 to $248, Goldman $230 to $245, Citi $200 to $240, UBS $210 to $230, TD Cowen $200 to $224, Mizuho $200 to $205, Susquehanna $173 to $176. Reiterated: Morgan Stanley $300, Needham $250, RBC $225, Yorkville Ives $225, Piper $140. KeyBanc Sector Weight, no target. Morningstar $63 is independent research, not a sell-side target.
What's priced in at $159.31
Market cap $2.16T (13.573B shares). That is 37x Q3 run rate ($14.575B x4), 15x the Q1 2027 guide midpoint ($35B x4), 22x the $100B ARR target. Backlog $63B = 3% of market cap.
Street average $247 (+55%). JPMorgan $500 = $6.79T, x3.14. Not in today's price.
| # | Desk | PT | Starlink | Launch | AI | Starship | Grok | X | Terafab | Merger | Starshield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | JPMorgan1 | $500 | V | V | V | V | – | – | – | M | – |
| 02 | Cantor2 | $345 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 03 | Morgan Stanley3 | $300 | V | V | V | M | M | M | – | – | – |
| 04 | Needham4 | $250 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 05 | Citi5 | $240 | V | V | V | M | – | – | – | – | – |
| 06 | UBS | $230 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 07 | Yorkville Ives6 | $225 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | M | – |
| 08 | TD Cowen7 | $224 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 09 | Mizuho | $205 | V | V | V | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 10 | KeyBanc8 | none | M | – | M | M | – | – | – | – | – |
Verticals priced in, from post-Q3 notes (21 Oct). V = valued in the target, M = mentioned, not valued, – = not stated in public coverage.
1 AI: 2-3 GW end 2026 + 10 GW in 2027, $500B-$1T annualized revenue late 2027; Starship cadence in model; merger in July note.
2 ~$260B 2027 Intelligence sales, >10 GW end 2027.
3 Starlink subs the only blemish; orbit/Starship in $600 bull.
4 Connectivity op. income $2.37B (45.1%); 200k GB300 a month.
5 Flight 15 as catalyst.
6 80-90% merger odds by end 2027.
7 2.7 GW end 2026, 8.5 GW 2027.
8 No target. Starlink adds 1.6M vs 2.3M est; 2027 capex $473B; Starship gating risk.
Barclays, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Pivotal, Clear Street, Susquehanna raised without public vertical detail. Nobody puts dollars on Grok, X, Terafab, the merger or Starshield.
36 sell-side 12-month targets
Street priced 2.58 of 8 verticals
IN = dollars in the target. Named is not priced. Bull is not the 12-month number.
2 · Terra AI
21 / 36
21 in · 0 bull · 2 named · 13 out
Colossus, neocloud leases (Anthropic, Google, Reflection), Cursor revenue parked here.
3 · Orbit AI
1 / 36
1 in · 3 bull · 2 named · 30 out
Data centers in space. GW in orbit. Starship as the truck for compute, not just for Starlink.
4 · X app
0 / 36
0 in · 0 bull · 3 named · 33 out
X as a consumer / payments / everything-app. Not the GPU hotel. Not Grok the model.
5 · Grok
0 / 36
0 in · 0 bull · 6 named · 30 out
Grok, Grok Imagine, Grok Build as a ChatGPT / Claude threat. Not Colossus rent.
6 · Terafab
0 / 36
0 in · 0 bull · 3 named · 33 out
Joint chip plant with Tesla. Valued as a chip producer, not as a footnote that makes orbit cheaper.
7 · Launch
36 / 36
36 in · 0 bull · 0 named · 0 out
Falcon franchise and Starship as a launch business. Cadence, $/kg, rideshare.
8 · Moonshots
0 / 36
0 in · 3 bull · 1 named · 32 out
Asteroid mining, moon factories, Mars logistics, point-to-point Earth transport.
- IN · in the 12-month PT
- BULL · only in a bull / long-term number
- NAMED · in the note, no dollars
- OUT · not considered
The board
| # | Firm | PT | vs close | IN | Starlink | Terra AI | Orbit AI | X app | Grok | Terafab | Launch | Moonshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Raymond James Brian Gesuale · Strong Buy · 14 Oct 2026 (reiterated) | $800 | +402% | 3/8 | I | I | N | O | N | O | I | N |
| 02 | JPMorgan Doug Anmuth · Overweight · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $240) | $500 | +214% | 3/8 | I | I | B | O | N | O | I | O |
| 03 | Arete Andrew Beale · Buy · 11 Aug 2026 | $450 | +182% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 04 | Cantor Colin Canfield · Overweight · 20-21 Oct 2026 (raised from $246) | $345 | +117% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 05 | Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas · Overweight · 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) | $300 bull $600 | +88% | 3/8 | I | I | B | N | N | O | I | B |
| 06 | Barclays Anthony Valentini · Overweight · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $254) | $300 | +88% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 07 | Oppenheimer Timothy Horan · Outperform · 2 Sep 2026 | $280 | +76% | 3/8 | I | I | N | N | N | N | I | O |
| 08 | Evercore ISI Kutgun Maral · Outperform · 16 Oct 2026 (Q3 preview) | $275 | +73% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 09 | Wells Fargo Ken Gawrelski · Overweight · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $214) | $274 | +72% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 10 | Pivotal Research Jeffrey Wlodarczak · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $230) | $260 | +63% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 11 | Needham Ryan Koontz · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) | $250 | +57% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 12 | Macquarie Paul Golding · Outperform · 21 Oct 2026 (Buy maintained) | $250 | +57% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 13 | CLSA Accumulate · 28 Sep 2026 (initiation) | $250 | +57% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 14 | Bernstein Douglas Harned · Outperform · 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated, finanzen.net) | $248 | +56% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 15 | Clear Street Brian Dobson · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $217) | $248 | +56% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 16 | Canaccord Buy · 7 Jul 2026 (initiation) | $246 | +54% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 17 | Goldman Sachs Eric Sheridan · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $230) | $245 bull $285 | +54% | 4/8 | I | I | I | O | N | N | I | B |
| 18 | Citi John Godyn · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) | $240 bull $900 | +51% | 3/8 | I | I | B | O | O | O | I | B |
| 19 | Deutsche Bank Edison Yu · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (Buy, $235 reiterated after Q3) | $235 | +48% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 20 | BofA Ronald Epstein · Buy · 7 Jul 2026 (initiation); maintained 2 Sep | $235 | +48% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 21 | UBS John Hodulik · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $210) | $230 | +44% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 22 | RBC Ken Herbert · Outperform · 21 Oct 2026 (maintained) | $225 | +41% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | N | I | O |
| 23 | Yorkville Ives Dan Ives · Outperform · 21 Oct 2026 (kept; initiated 6 Oct) | $225 | +41% | 3/8 | I | I | O | N | N | O | I | O |
| 24 | TD Cowen John Blackledge · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) | $224 | +41% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 25 | Mizuho Brett Linzey · Outperform · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) | $205 | +29% | 3/8 | I | I | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 26 | Stifel Jonathan Siegmann · Buy · 21 Oct 2026 (Buy maintained) | $190 | +19% | 2/8 | I | N | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 27 | Susquehanna Charles Minervino · Neutral · 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $173) | $176 | +10% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 28 | Wolfe Myles Walton · Outperform · 26 Aug 2026 | $175 | +10% | 2/8 | I | N | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 29 | Daiwa Jonathan Kees · Neutral · 2 Jul 2026 (initiation) | $175 | +10% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 30 | Argus Steve Silver · Buy · 6-7 Aug 2026 | $160 | +0% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 31 | MoffettNathanson Julie Zhu · Neutral · 14 Sep 2026 | $142 | -11% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 32 | Piper Sandler Alexander Potter · Neutral · 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) | $140 | -12% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 33 | CFRA Keith Snyder · Sell · 12 Jun 2026 (initiation) | $115 | -28% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 34 | HSBC Nicolas Cote-Colisson · Hold · 23 Jul 2026 (initiation) | $115 bull $293 | -28% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 35 | DZ Bank Sell · 21 Aug 2026 (initiation) | $100 | -37% | 2/8 | I | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 36 | Phillip Securities Glenn Thum · Sell · 17 Aug 2026 | $75 | -53% | 1/8 | N | O | O | O | O | O | I | O |
| 37 | Morningstar Nicolas Owens · Independent · 18 Aug 2026 (as previously shown) | $63 bull $154 | -60% | 2/8 | I | N | B | O | O | O | I | B |
#
Desk
Target
Priced of 8
01
Strong Buy
Raymond James
Brian Gesuale · 12-month target $800
Target dated 14 Oct 2026 (reiterated) · source · Reiterated Strong Buy, $800, on the FAA Starbase filing (456 launches a year). Target unchanged; previously last confirmed 7 Aug 2026. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
A 2031 infrastructure DCF pulled into a 12-month target. $30T TAM, 27x 2031 EBITDA. The number is the flywheel, not eight lines.
In the number. Launch cost crash, Starlink as the cash engine, AI cloud leases as proof. 2026 ~$38.5B rev / $17.7B EBITDA → 2031 >$837B / $696B.
Left out. No standalone Grok, X Money, or Terafab line. Asteroid / moon factories ride inside the TAM, not as cash flows. No haircut for Starship slip, 90-day cloud walk-away, or dilution.
$800
+402% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
02
Overweight
JPMorgan
Doug Anmuth · 12-month target $500
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $240) · source · Raised $240 to $500 after Q3, Overweight kept.
Post-Q3: more than doubled the target. Models 2027 revenue of $254B. Street high outside Raymond James and Arete.
In the number. Q3 beat ($14.6B revenue, $8.8B adj. EBITDA) and the Q1 2027 guide of $33-37B pulled the AI compute ramp forward.
Left out. Starship remains the gating item for the long-term case; orbital compute not split out in public coverage.
$500
+214% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
03
Buy
Arete
Andrew Beale · 12-month target $450
Target dated 11 Aug 2026 · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Telecom note, not aerospace. $450 is Starlink V3 plus Starship on time. Raised from $401 on 11 Aug.
In the number. V3 attacks suburban broadband. V3 is too big for Falcon 9, so Starship must fly. Subscriber growth is the live KPI.
Left out. No orbital GW, no Grok-as-ChatGPT, no X Money, no Terafab, no moon factories. If Starship slips, the whole target breaks.
$450
+182% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
04
Overweight
Cantor
Colin Canfield · 12-month target $345
Target dated 20-21 Oct 2026 (raised from $246) · source · Raised $246 to $345, Overweight, named top pick.
Post-Q3: 2027 Intelligence sales estimate lifted to ~$260B from ~$40B. Now models >10 GW terrestrial compute by end 2027 (was ~4 GW).
In the number. Terrestrial compute, Starlink, launch. Sees free cash flow positive by 2028. Bull outlook of $500B-$1T year-end 2027 ARR.
Left out. No public breakout of Grok, X, or Terafab as separate lines.
$345
+117% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
05
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
Adam Jonas · 12-month target $300 · bull $600 · bear $75
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) · source · Overweight and $300 reiterated after Q3; 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts raised on AI.
Post-Q3: revenue beat across segments, led by AI. Starlink subscriber shortfall called the 'only clear blemish'.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial compute. Connectivity revenue beat ~7% on stronger pricing.
Left out. Orbit and moonshots stay in the $600 bull case, not the $300.
$300
+88% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
06
Overweight
Barclays
Anthony Valentini · 12-month target $300
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $254) · source · Raised $254 to $300, Overweight kept. Initiated at $254 on 8-9 Oct.
Post-Q3 raise of $46. Full note not public; rationale per coverage is the Q3 beat and AI compute ramp.
In the number. Scored from headlines: Starlink and launch, plus the post-Q3 AI ramp.
Left out. Other verticals not confirmed from the note.
$300
+88% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
07
Outperform
Oppenheimer
Timothy Horan · 12-month target $280
Target dated 2 Sep 2026 · source · Raised from $250. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Raised from $190 after Cursor. Talks like they own the whole AI stack. The $250 is Cursor visibility, not Grok beating ChatGPT.
In the number. Starlink vs a $1.6T U.S. telecom TAM. Cursor run-rate ~$1B → $4B → $6B YE 2026. Q4 2026 AI rev $8.75B. Launch. Models >$400B net debt by 2031.
Left out. “Owns every layer” is the write-up. Grok, X, and chips are named, not SOTP lines. No orbital GW in the 12-month number. No moon factories.
$280
+76% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
08
Outperform
Evercore ISI
Kutgun Maral · 12-month target $275
Target dated 16 Oct 2026 (Q3 preview) · source · Outperform $275 set in 16 Oct Q3 preview (was $230 on 28 Sep). No post-Q3 change found.
Underwriter SOTP. The $275 is the cluster, not the $28T TAM.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the 12-month target. Verticals carried over from the $230 note; Q3 preview credits AI compute for most of the raise (2029E adj. EBITDA $266B from $210B), vertical split unconfirmed.
$275
+73% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
09
Overweight
Wells Fargo
Ken Gawrelski · 12-month target $274
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $214) · source · Raised $214 to $274, Overweight kept.
Post-Q3 raise of $60, one of the larger moves. Earlier capex-funding caution now outweighed by the beat.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI.
Left out. Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, moonshots not in the $274.
$274
+72% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
10
Buy
Pivotal Research
Jeffrey Wlodarczak · 12-month target $260
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $230) · source · Raised $230 to $260, Buy kept.
Post-Q3 raise of $30. Full note not public.
In the number. Scored from headlines: Starlink (incl. Starlink Mobile) and launch.
Left out. Other verticals not confirmed from the note; marked OUT until reviewed.
$260
+63% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
11
Buy
Needham
Ryan Koontz · 12-month target $250
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) · source · Buy and $250 reiterated; estimates raised.
Post-Q3: 2026 revenue estimate to $51.4B (from $47.5B), 2027 to $152.9B (from $128.7B), 2027 EPS to $3.76 (from $3.10).
In the number. Falcon, Starlink, terrestrial AI. Cites 200,000 Nvidia GB300 chips a month and Connectivity operating income of $2.37B at a 45.1% margin.
Left out. Orbit, Grok-as-frontier, X, Terafab, asteroid / moon are not in the $250.
$250
+57% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
12
Outperform
Macquarie
Paul Golding · 12-month target $250
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (Buy maintained) · source · Buy maintained after Q3; target not restated by aggregators, $250 kept from 30 Sep.
Standard growth SOTP. Public note does not break out Grok, X, Terafab, or orbit.
In the number. Launch + Starlink + a terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. No published dollars on Grok the model, X Money, Terafab, orbital GW, or moonshots.
$250
+57% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
13
Accumulate
CLSA
12-month target $250
Target dated 28 Sep 2026 (initiation) · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
New on this board since the 18 Aug version. Full note not reviewed here.
In the number. Scored from public headlines only: Starlink and launch assumed in the number, like every other desk.
Left out. Other verticals not confirmed from the note; marked OUT until reviewed.
$250
+57% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
14
Outperform
Bernstein
Douglas Harned · 12-month target $248
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated, finanzen.net) · source · Outperform reiterated 21 Oct. Target figure not restated by US aggregators; $248 kept from finanzen.net.
Post-Q3: rating reiterated. Starship cadence and AI ramp remain the two live KPIs.
In the number. Launch / Starship flights, Starlink, Cursor inside terrestrial AI.
Left out. Grok the model, X, Terafab, orbit, and moonshots are not 12-month lines.
$248
+56% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
15
Buy
Clear Street
Brian Dobson · 12-month target $248
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $217) · source · Raised $217 to $248, Buy kept.
Post-Q3 raise of $31. No public moonshot stack.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $217.
$248
+56% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
16
Buy
Canaccord
12-month target $246
Target dated 7 Jul 2026 (initiation) · source · No newer note found. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Initiation Buy. Same cluster stack as Cantor.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. No published dollars on Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshots.
$246
+54% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
17
Buy
Goldman Sachs
Eric Sheridan · 12-month target $245 · bull $285
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $230) · source · Raised $230 to $245, Buy kept.
Post-Q3 raise citing positioning across space launch, connectivity and AI.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, AI compute; previously the one cluster desk with orbital GW in the SOTP.
Left out. Terafab is a dependency (“if it cuts Nvidia spend”), not a valued foundry. Grok is ~14% of a 2030 AI revenue rebuild, not a 12-month equity line. Point-to-point, tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, asteroid, Moon/Mars are listed as upside, not in $220. X Money out.
$245
+54% vs $159.31
4 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
18
Buy
Citi
John Godyn · 12-month target $240 · bull $900
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) · source · Raised $200 to $240, Buy kept. Opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
Post-Q3: all three segments beat Citi on essentially every metric. Calls Starship Flight 15 a 'monumental' catalyst.
In the number. Space, Connectivity, Super Intelligence beats. Expects beat-and-raise to continue into Q4.
Left out. Long-term $900 thesis still sits outside the 12-month number.
$240
+51% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
19
Buy
Deutsche Bank
Edison Yu · 12-month target $235
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (Buy, $235 reiterated after Q3) · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Post-Q3 (21 Oct): Buy and $235 reiterated; 2027E revenue raised to $181B. Was cut from $255 earlier.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI that already exists.
Left out. The cut is the tell: orbit / Grok / Terafab / moonshots were never the $235.
$235
+48% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
20
Buy
BofA
Ronald Epstein · 12-month target $235
Target dated 7 Jul 2026 (initiation); maintained 2 Sep · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Initiation $235. Later Buy notes did not restate a new target.
In the number. Underwriter SOTP: launch, Starlink, terrestrial AI.
Left out. No public Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, or moonshot line in the 12-month number.
$235
+48% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
21
Buy
UBS
John Hodulik · 12-month target $230
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $210) · source · Raised $210 to $230, Buy kept.
Post-Q3: raise driven by strong AI compute leasing performance.
In the number. Starlink, launch, AI compute leasing.
Left out. No public dollars on Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots.
$230
+44% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
22
Outperform
RBC
Ken Herbert · 12-month target $225
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (maintained) · source · Outperform and $225 maintained after Q3.
Post-Q3: no change, citing a favorable long-term outlook.
In the number. Falcon, Starlink, some terrestrial AI.
Left out. Terafab is named via Tesla, not valued as a chip company. Grok, X, orbit, moonshots out.
$225
+41% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
23
Outperform
Yorkville Ives
Dan Ives · 12-month target $225
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (kept; initiated 6 Oct) · source · Dan Ives now covers from Yorkville Ives ($225, initiated 6 Oct); replaces his $190 Wedbush row.
Post-Q3: Outperform and $225 kept. Puts an 80-90% chance on a Tesla-SpaceX merger by end 2027.
In the number. Launch, Starlink, AI. Points to the $63B backlog, ~$42B expected to be recognized within a year.
Left out. Grok is named. X is named. Neither is a SOTP line. Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.
$225
+41% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
24
Buy
TD Cowen
John Blackledge · 12-month target $224
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) · source · Raised $200 to $224, Buy kept.
Post-Q3: revenue and EBITDA estimates up 21% and 26% a year on average for 2026-2031, led by Super Intelligence.
In the number. Now sees 2.7 GW terrestrial compute at end 2026 (was 2.1 GW) and 8.5 GW in 2027. Pricing slightly above the $30-50 per watt range.
Left out. Orbit, Grok as a model, X, Terafab not broken out.
$224
+41% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
25
Outperform
Mizuho
Brett Linzey · 12-month target $205
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $200) · source · Raised $200 to $205, Outperform kept.
Post-Q3: revenue $14.6B and adj. EBITDA $8.8B beat Mizuho's $13.7B and $6.1B. Smallest raise of the day.
In the number. Launch + Starlink + a terrestrial AI slice.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out.
$205
+29% vs $159.31
3 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
26
Buy
Stifel
Jonathan Siegmann · 12-month target $190
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (Buy maintained) · source · Buy maintained after Q3, citing standout revenue and margins the last two quarters. $190 not restated in coverage.
Conservative Buy. Pays a small premium over cash businesses.
In the number. Launch and Starlink. Thin AI.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $190.
$190
+19% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
27
Neutral
Susquehanna
Charles Minervino · 12-month target $176
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (raised from $173) · source · Raised $173 to $176, Neutral kept.
Post-Q3: small raise, still Neutral. Pays for the cash businesses, not the poster.
In the number. Launch and Starlink.
Left out. Terra AI, orbit, X, Grok, Terafab, moonshots out.
$176
+10% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
28
Outperform
Wolfe
Myles Walton · 12-month target $175
Target dated 26 Aug 2026 · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Initiated around IPO on 16x 2028 sales. Modest AI/space premium.
In the number. Launch and Starlink. Small multiple on later sales.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $175.
$175
+10% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
29
Neutral
Daiwa
Jonathan Kees · 12-month target $175
Target dated 2 Jul 2026 (initiation) · source · No newer note found. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Near-term fair value. Neutral. Not a growth SOTP.
In the number. Launch and today’s Starlink.
Left out. Every option vertical is out of the Neutral $175.
$175
+10% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
30
Buy
Argus
Steve Silver · 12-month target $160
Target dated 6-7 Aug 2026 · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Upgraded from Hold. Limited optionality. Almost no premium to the tape.
In the number. Launch and Starlink.
Left out. AI stack, Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out of the $160.
$160
+0% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
31
Neutral
MoffettNathanson
Julie Zhu · 12-month target $142
Target dated 14 Sep 2026 · source · Raised from $131. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Rejects the company TAM. Prices the businesses that exist. “Identity crisis.”
In the number. Launch and today’s Starlink. Telecom discipline.
Left out. $22.7T Grok Business TAM, $28T S-1 TAM, orbital compute as a 12-month cash business, X Money, Terafab, Mars — all out on purpose.
$142
-11% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
32
Neutral
Piper Sandler
Alexander Potter · 12-month target $140
Target dated 21 Oct 2026 (reiterated) · source · Neutral and $140 reiterated after Q3.
Post-Q3: no change. Views management's revenue projections as optimistic. Still below the tape.
In the number. Existing launch and Starlink, haircut for supply.
Left out. Starship is not base case. V3 suburban, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, moonshots out.
$140
-12% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
33
Sell
CFRA
Keith Snyder · 12-month target $115
Target dated 12 Jun 2026 (initiation) · source · No newer note found. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Sell. The tape already prices heroic growth. $115 is a haircut, not a new stack.
In the number. Launch and Starlink at a discount to the tape.
Left out. No incremental dollars for terra AI, orbit, Grok, X, Terafab, or moonshots.
$115
-28% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
34
Hold
HSBC
Nicolas Cote-Colisson · 12-month target $115 · bull $293
Target dated 23 Jul 2026 (initiation) · source · No newer note found. No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Hold. Price already reflects success. They have a $293 bull they refuse to use as the target.
In the number. Launch and Starlink in the $115. The $293 bull is unpublished stack.
Left out. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots are not in the Hold target. $293 is BULL only where they said so — they did not publish the split.
$115
-28% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
35
Sell
DZ Bank
12-month target $100
Target dated 21 Aug 2026 (initiation) · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
New on this board since the 18 Aug version. Full note not reviewed here.
In the number. Scored from public headlines only: Starlink and launch assumed in the number, like every other desk.
Left out. Other verticals not confirmed from the note; marked OUT until reviewed.
$100
-37% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
36
Sell
Phillip Securities
Glenn Thum · 12-month target $75
Target dated 17 Aug 2026 · source · No post-Q3 target change found as of 21 Oct.
Street low. AI revenue not durable. Cash burn through 2030. Maintained 17 Aug.
In the number. A discounted launch + Starlink stub.
Left out. GPU leases treated as cancellable. Grok, X, Terafab, orbit, moonshots out. Starlink is not a compounding cash engine in this note.
$75
-53% vs $159.31
1 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
37
Independent
not sell-side
Morningstar
Nicolas Owens · 12-month target $63 · bull $154
Target dated 18 Aug 2026 (as previously shown) · Not re-verified; independent research.
Not sell-side. Launch + Starlink ~$40. Moonshot $154 at 7%. Blend $63.
In the number. Core launch and Starlink, high visibility.
Left out. Orbit only in the 7% moonshot. Grok, X, Terafab, and asteroid / moon factories are not in the $63. Even the moonshot tops out at $154.
$63
-60% vs $159.31
2 of 8 verticals in the 12-month PT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 / 8 priced in the 12-month target
How to read this board
Same idea as the 13F page. There the running column is ownership toward 100%. Here the running column is how many of the eight verticals have dollars in the 12-month target. A write-up can talk about Grok and still score OUT. Morgan Stanley’s ~$12 AI residual is Colossus + X + Grok + Cursor in one pile — Grok the model is NAMED, not IN.
IN — the 12-month price target has real dollars on this vertical. BULL — published only in a bull case or a long-term number (MS $600, Citi $900, GS upside list, Morningstar moonshot). NAMED — in the note, no SOTP line, no dollars in the 12-month target. OUT — not considered, or explicitly zeroed / rejected.
Cursor is parked inside terrestrial AI when a desk models it. It is not a ninth vertical here. Grok Imagine and Grok Build are scored with Grok the model, not with compute leases.
The punchline
Launch and Starlink are in almost every target. Terrestrial AI (the GPU hotel) is in the $200–$250 cluster. Orbital compute is in Goldman’s 12-month number and in a handful of bull cases. Grok as a frontier model, X / X Money, Terafab as a chip company, and moonshots are not in anyone’s 12-month price target as their own businesses. That is the $75 vs $800 fight: not Falcon, not today’s Starlink. The leftover six.
Updated 21 Oct 2026, evening (post-Q3 notes rewritten). 1987 people · 2297 views. Aggregator “mass downgrades” on 7 Aug are treated as bad data. Sources: MarketBeat, TipRanks/TheFly, Benzinga, StreetInsider, Google Finance and firm-specific reports, linked per desk. Five desks added since 18 Aug are scored from headlines only. Not financial advice.