SpaceX Q3 2026 · 10-Q filed 2026-10-22
34.5%
One customer paid a third of the bill.
Customer B was 34.5% of Q3 2026 revenue, about $5.03B or $1.68B a month (our estimate). The 10-Q also shows $9.63B of operating cash in the quarter and $23.7B of gear still being built. Read the full report →
$9.63BOperating cash, quarter onlyOur estimate: year to date minus last filing · p.9
$3.23BCustomer prepayments addedDeferred revenue change · p.13
$23.7BGear under constructionWas $12.6B · p.14
$6.31BCapex still unpaid, addedSupplemental cash flow · p.9
51.1%Customers A and B togetherA 16.6% · B 34.5% · p.13
23%Of net income that won't repeat$561M TBC gain + $449M tax · p.17, 28
10.9%Implied Valor debt rateOur estimate · $12.9B debt · p.31
13,581,063,709Shares outstandingCover, as of 2026-10-15 · p.1
In plain English
- Cash came first. About $9.63B of operating cash in Q3 2026 alone, 2.8 times the whole prior year to date (our estimate). Customers prepaid $3.23B.
- One customer is a third of revenue. The filing does not name Customer B. Our inference is Anthropic, whose deal is $1.25B a month; B paid about $1.68B a month. Contracts can end on 90 days' notice.
- Next quarter's revenue is on the balance sheet. $23.7B of servers and data centers was not switched on yet.
- Profit had help. The $561M Boring Company gain was 12.7% of net income of $4.40B; with the tax benefit about 23% was one-off.
- Debt. Notes worth $22.9B against $24.9B carrying. New liens are capped at 7.5% of assets, about $19.1B (our estimate).
What changed vs the Q2 2026 10-Q
| Line | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income p.5 | -$541M | $4.40B | +914% |
| Operating cash flow, year to date p.9 | $3.47B | $13.1B | +278% |
| Capex still unpaid in payables, year to date p.9 | $5.51B | $11.8B | +115% |
| Construction in progress p.14 | $12.6B | $23.7B | +89% |
| Revenue p.5 | $7.81B | $14.6B | +87% |
| Data center infrastructure p.14 | $3.99B | $6.33B | +59% |
| Non-cancelable commitments p.29 | $28.0B | $37.8B | +35% |
| Gross property and equipment p.14 | $83.1B | $110.0B | +32% |
Sorted by size of change. "Year to date" lines grow every quarter by design; the quarter-only figures are in the boxes above.
Customer share of revenue
Bars scaled to 50%. Revenue concentration note, p.13.
Every number, quarter by quarter
| Line | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81B | $14.6B | 5 |
| Net income | -$541M | $4.40B | 5 |
| Operating cash flow, year to date | $3.47B | $13.1B | 9 |
| Deferred revenue (total) | $14.3B | $17.5B | 13 |
| Capex still unpaid in payables, year to date | $5.51B | $11.8B | 9 |
| Servers and networking equipment | $34.8B | $43.2B | 14 |
| Data center infrastructure | $3.99B | $6.33B | 14 |
| Construction in progress | $12.6B | $23.7B | 14 |
| Gross property and equipment | $83.1B | $110.0B | 14 |
| Non-cancelable commitments | $28.0B | $37.8B | 29 |
| Customer A share of revenue | 18.3% | 16.6% | 13 |
| Customer B share of revenue | 19.5% | 34.5% | 13 |
| Total assets | – | $254.0B | 4 |
| SpaceX Notes, carrying amount | – | $24.9B | 21 |
| SpaceX Notes, fair value | – | $22.9B | 21 |
| Valor sale-leaseback debt | – | $12.9B | 31 |
| Valor interest in the quarter | – | $351M | 31 |
| Boring Company (TBC) fair value gain | – | $561M | 17 |
| Provisional deferred tax benefit | – | $449M | 28 |
Non-cancelable commitments by year
| Due | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (rest) | $2.73B | $2.31B |
| 2027 | $22.2B | $25.6B |
| 2028 | $2.17B | $4.64B |
| 2029 | $809M | $2.07B |
| 2030 | $2M | $1.22B |
| Thereafter | $0M | $2.03B |
"2026 (rest)" covers fewer months in each later filing. Q3 2026 p.29.
Also in the filing
| Boring Company gain | $561M gain on the stake in The Boring Company after its September funding round, 12.7% of Q3 net income of $4,404M. Does not repeat. p.17 |
| Tax benefit | $449M provisional deferred tax benefit. With the TBC gain, about 23% of Q3 net income was one-off. p.28 |
| Tax allowance language | New wording says a significant portion of the US valuation allowance could be released. Our estimate of the one-time gain: about $4.6B to $7.4B. p.46 |
| Notes covenant | 5.855% weighted coupon. Additional liens are limited to 7.5% of total assets, about $19.1B (our estimate). First maturity 15 Jul 2031. p.18 |
| EchoStar shares | About 261.8M Class A shares at a fixed $42.40 each, still to be issued. p.54 |
| Tesla special committee | The board formed a special committee to evaluate a potential combination with Tesla. p.38 |
| Insider plans | No director or officer adopted or ended a 10b5-1 trading plan in Q3. p.57 |
Sources
- SpaceX 10-Q for Q3 2026, filed 2026-10-22. Page numbers are the filing's own.
- SpaceX 10-Q for Q2 2026, filed 2026-08-04. Page numbers are the filing's own.
- Panke research: What the SpaceX Q3 10-Q says that the earnings release did not
"Our estimate" marks our math, not a reported figure. Customer B's identity is our inference. Not financial advice.